You yourself write that you have a rather bleak outlook on retirement. Do you see yourself retiring at 63 with high deductions?
I think with us there will also be the wish to retire at 63, just like current generations already have (and many from my grandparents’ generation are already retired significantly earlier).
For example, a car doesn’t seem that important to you. Of course, you can get from A to B with any car, but for example, I just treated myself to my dream car for €50,000.
A car MUST be a usable object for me, meaning I shouldn’t be afraid of scratches and dents in the parking lot (for example if kids in the neighboring car don’t pay attention). I do appreciate comfort, but on the other hand I also compare the car with the bike (e.g. in sleet) or public transport, and in that comparison all differences between cars actually fade. They are all exactly the same speed, all offer weather protection, air conditioning, heating, privacy. At the moment I am considering whether to switch the car (second car) used for 2x office days per week from a €500–1,000 small car (very old) to a normal compact class car (Golf, Octavia, Astra, etc.). For about €15,000 as a used car. On the one hand obviously a lot more comfortable, but on the other hand I only use the car about one hour per week (4x about 15 minutes). Spend €15,000 so I don’t get to work any faster or better, just differently!?
I happened to have a conversation with my boss about this today. She is a lawyer, her husband is a doctor, and she said that she and many people in her circle hardly repay any principal. They don’t actually want to acquire property ownership. They live in a house, pay interest as if they were paying rent, and want to sell the house later, ideally without loss. With the money they repay the remaining debt and the unpaid principal is saved for retirement in ETFs. So much for the short version of our conversation.
That can work at 1% interest. At 3.5% interest currently, you hardly beat the higher interest costs with 7% returns minus taxes, with high risk. Ultimately, I also see from experience over the last 20 years in my environment: No one (!) leaves their house or apartment. Yes, there may be individual cases. But in the environment of the respective parents in my circle of friends and acquaintances, everyone stayed in their houses and apartments, even though many certainly once planned to downsize when their children moved out. This is an idea some people might have at 30, but after living there for 25 years, 95% still stay there.
This question comes from you? You are the one here who wants to prophesy that later everything will be regulated so sharply and paternalistically.
Why sharply and paternalistically? It is clear, Germany and the EU want to achieve climate neutrality. By 2045. There is nothing wrong with that. Climate neutrality 2045 also means that by 2045 no gas heating will run anymore (that is already law), that by 2045 no existing combustion engine cars will be driven anymore, and that by 2045 every house will have either district heating or a heat pump, or at least a high-temperature heat pump. And if we do not want infinite solar fields, we will have to build photovoltaics on roofs.
You don’t get full from stocks either.
Yes, of course. That is liquid wealth that can be converted at any time and also in the smallest fractions into consumer goods like food, clothing, travel.
Photovoltaics exist currently. What technology will play a role in 20/30 years, we do not know.
At the moment I do not want to further increase my debt, i.e. my personal leverage. Therefore, currently until repayment no photovoltaics, no heat pump, etc.
I think you got totally sidetracked and want to save for the sake of saving. You are saving your life away. The fear of losing money can consume you.
I also don’t really see where one could spend more money now. I already explained the car above. But also with the furniture, for example – we had picked out our "dream couch" for €4,000 and then thought, the kids will break it anyway. Instead, it became an equally large couch, but certainly much less durable, for under €1,500 from the internet. And the kids jump on it, climb on it with street shoes and chocolate fingers and I am fairly relaxed because the couch, like the car, is a utility object. At €4,000 I might not have this peace of mind. The same with the furniture, we once considered replacing our living room furniture. And now we are glad that the kids drive the Bobby-Car into the 15-year-old furniture and not into any expensive, new furniture.
It is always cautious to evaluate when someone registers here shortly before the summer slump and presents "negative forecasts," first with a simple question, then later with a flood of negative material and black-and-white thinking. Ultimately, the person achieves views or traffic through scaremongering about our future or politics – first general, then in the first person, then it goes into "we." Whether consciously or unconsciously with the "fixed idea."
It is telling that we are already shortly before the summer slump in mid-April. Climate change has already had quite an impact. These "negative forecasts" with the high costs for photovoltaics, photovoltaic storage, heat pumps, 100% e-cars, etc. are exactly the reality if we take climate protection seriously. Which I assume. What I support in principle as well. But I also see the follow-up costs, which will undoubtedly be enormous.