How long did it take you to reach the construction decision?

It's not just about the interest rates. No one knows what will happen. The discussion is actually obsolete. It is what it is, and nothing will happen during the fixed interest period anyway.

The question is rather how the upcoming generational change will take place. For example, in the residential street where my parents live, almost everyone is 60+. Will these people actually invest tens of thousands of euros in heating, insulation, windows, barrier-free renovations, etc., or will they put their houses on the market beforehand? Do they still feel like spending hours on gardening and heating 150 sqm for two people? Their children have long since moved away, settled in and around Frankfurt, Hannover, Cologne, etc., and will not take over the houses. This affects significantly more households than those who, despite the best economic conditions, can no longer pay their installments and therefore have to sell. I see this development as a price breaker rather than unrealistic interest rate jumps of around 3-4 percent in a short time.

The question is rather how the upcoming generational change will take place. In the residential street of my parents, for example, almost only 60+ people still live.

There is no sharp generational change: people are born every year, people turn 60 every year, and people also die every year. I don't believe there were any special building generations whose houses are now all becoming available at once. In my opinion, the single-family house construction rate did not fluctuate that much. So while you are waiting for the retirees on your street, plenty of even older retirees are already moving out of their houses, and the market soaks them up like a vacuum cleaner soaks up cookie crumbs. (that is, the houses..., not the retirees)

My dream had been to build my own house for a very long time. I myself grew up in a rented apartment and always thought it was great to visit school friends who lived in houses with gardens. My wife (then still my girlfriend) knew about this dream. But at first, we moved into a shared apartment because, due to my studies, she was the sole earner. With her starting salary, my part-time job, and support from my parents, we were able to live well. After graduation, we moved into a larger apartment. At some point, I started to get involved with the topic of house construction and annoyed my girlfriend. We agreed to postpone the topic until "after the wedding." But she preferred buying. The wedding was in spring 2016. After the honeymoon, we looked at some existing properties and plots of land. She was still fixated on buying instead of building, as the building topic seemed too uncertain to her. After I convinced her to visit a model house park, she soon also took a liking to building "our own" four walls. Then it went quite fast, parallel to visits to various house parks and discussions in summer 2016. We also found a building plot with a positive building pre-approval in a smaller town in the Hamburg metropolitan area (backland development). The final decision for a local builder was made in mid-August. At the end of January, earthworks began, at the beginning of March was the topping-out ceremony, and in mid-July the house was handed over. At the end of August, we moved in and at the beginning of October our son was born. And now we have been living in the house for over a year and have not regretted any decision so far. We would do everything exactly the same again.

First of all, it must be said: The boom is driven by strong demand – also among other things due to the low interest rates – with a limited supply. This is not a bubble but genuine demand. Significant downward discounts would only occur with a strong increase in supply and a sharply declining demand.

Should interest rates rise (I am thinking more in the range of 2 to 4%), I would assume that demand would slightly decrease. I would then rather expect price stagnation over several years. Inflation would then raise it back to a more bearable level over the years. This saturation is already occurring in some locations here in [BY]. Not everything is going at any price anymore. However, I see real stronger losses (-10 to 25%) only in isolated cases.

I don't believe there were special building generations whose houses are all becoming available at once.

Yes. In the 60s, the vast majority of single-family home builders were young families with children, and there were not many late parents, so this building generation had less age spread. I have such a development in the neighborhood that was developed within a few years back then. A few confirmation year groups clustered in a row of houses, and they virtually retired all at once. Two large employers in the region cut back massively, so the youth aren't moving in. If you own a nursing service here, you know where a place will soon be available cheaply.

Observation: There are three newly built housing estates here, ours and two others, where I know a row of partially very young houses, where the hearse threatens and where there are no children in the village......