Unfortunately, that's all wrong. I recommend Graslutscher, Quaschning, and the Fraunhofer Institute as a starting point for reading up. And now back to the house.
I know all that. It can be summarized like this: If there are not enough renewables, the fossil fuels step in. Graslutscher has a great article about it, which primarily deals with the shutdown of the nuclear power plants and looks closely at the chart. That’s exactly what I said. Since dark doldrums in winter aren’t rare, the green heat pump collapses on itself.
Don’t get me wrong: I find the heat pump a fascinating technology and would also like to have one if the environment is right. Unfortunately, that’s not the case for us with a house built in 1983 and 400 m² of space, despite a KFW100EE renovation. The difference to a ground-source heat pump with 4 drillings and a pellet system was more than 20k euros before subsidies. That makes the pellet system as the “smallest climate evil” simply more sensible. A large part of the old building stock in Germany is not readily suitable for an air-water heat pump. Period. Unless you want to pay yourself stupid.
The OP will still be surprised how much electricity the heat pump draws in winter without underfloor or other surface heating, especially if there are maybe women, teenagers, or the like who like to shower or bathe for 30 minutes or more. One possibility would be for the OP to retrofit underfloor heating. There are ready-made elements from Fermacell made of EPS, where you simply lay in the tubing. You can do it yourself with a bit of skill. I would strongly recommend something like that if he can’t talk the seller out of the air-water heat pump swap. If he wants the air-water heat pump, he should urgently assign the contract himself. Then the heating installer can retrofit underfloor heating, smart thermostats, hot water circulation, etc. within the framework of the subsidy.