Where are the ECB's key interest rates heading?

Such huge margins on the variable??? We agreed on euribor3m + 50bp at the end of July, and so far my bank advisor still has his job oO

Such crazy margins on the variables??? We closed at euribor3m + 50bp at the end of July, and so far my bank advisor still has his job oO

No, no crazy margins. But a completely different business approach than with a correct calculation.

Example: With full cost calculation (I assume that commercial banks have a much worse cost-income ratio than we do, or according to annual reports it is actually the case), you need about 80-105bp margin for a financing with 80% loan-to-value and a decent rating.

So point 1: Margin +/- 100bp

Besides the topic of 3-M Euribor and margin, there is another issue. It's called liquidity costs. These amount to a little over 50bp for an 80% financing (for example with a 3-year term). Anyone who as a bank naturally uses maturity transformation can calculate differently – but is deceiving themselves. Since we have no deposits, you quickly end up at 6%.

I received an offer of 2.93% for 10 years yesterday. 345K€. Commerzbank, I will probably log in now.

We are currently also looking for favorable terms. According to the website, Commerzbank offers interest rates starting at 3.36%. Did you negotiate there or was that a special offer that got you even below 3%?

Best regards!

Buxbaum had predicted interest rates of 6 percent and more for the end of 2023. Today they are clearly below 3.30 again for 10 years

That is why you hear rather little from him on the topic at the moment. However, I rather had 7-8% in mind, or was that the forecast for mid-2024?

That's why you hear rather little from him on the topic at the moment. However, I had more like 7-8% in mind or was that the forecast for mid-2024?

That's the beauty of such "forecasts": Eventually they come true and then the person can say: I told you so all along. By now, an entire industry of crash prophets has emerged who deliver exactly nothing except marketing and hype management.

This is how it is with us: 1.03 million total of which 345k euros, 10 years, interest 2.93%, repayment 1.36, 5% annual special repayment possible of which 184k euros, 10 years, interest 0.75%, repayment 2.0%, subsidized (LaBo) rest equity capital Personally, we did not negotiate, but for us it runs through an intermediary. I have been working with him for a while and have already not signed offers I received before because I was betting on falling interest rates at the end of the year. I received an offer from the same bank about 6 weeks ago that was 1% higher. When I negotiated with regional banks it was not so great. Clearly more expensive and everything always felt more complicated.