xMisterDx
2022-09-28 15:10:40
- #1
A look into the past helps here. The inflation of the 70s was initially "only" caused by energy shocks. Then it became self-sustaining, because naturally the employee demands more money accordingly, and if he gets that through, the companies raise prices. The goal of interest rate hikes is mainly to reduce the scope for second-round effects. And to dampen demand. A higher interest rate won't change your heating needs, but it will, for example, lead to you not building a house and thus needing less energy-intensive material.
In the 70s, interest rates rose from 6 to 12%. A doubling. Currently, interest rates have risen from 1 to 4%, a quadrupling. By the mid-70s, the interest rates were back at 6%, by the way.
There will be no wage/price spiral like in the 70s. The world has changed massively since then. The overwhelming competition from the Far East, the superiority of Asians in electronics/microchips, the EU with its four freedoms. None of that existed back then. There is no room for larger wage increases.