Where are the ECB's key interest rates heading?

Complete nonsense with the interest rate forecasts. Almost everyone was wrong there. I stick to my assessment, interest rates will continue to rise. The wavy inflation curve will of course return and any interest rate cut would immediately lead to rising inflation again.

Apart from that, a wage-price spiral has long been underway in the USA. How is the FED supposed to cut rates there? Primarily, it is about preserving the dollar. And not about megalomaniac homebuilders in Germany. The global markets are not interested in that at all.

Again, wage increases in the USA often between 30 - 70 percent are already quite something. In Germany, so far only prices are rising. However, all of this has a quite exciting component. Let’s wait and see.

Again, wage increases in the USA often between 30 - 70 percent are quite a figure.

What kind of fairy tales are you telling again. Neither real wages nor nominal wages even remotely reach these percentage increases. Unless you look at the last 25 instead of 10 years, but then what significance does that still have?

The Ford employees accordingly received an immediate wage increase of eleven percent. Taking into account compound interest and living costs, this results in a wage increase of around 33 percent over the contract period to over 40 dollars per hour.

Chrysler plus 25 percent.

John Deere plus 33 percent.

Ford starting salaries USA plus 70 percent

US dockworkers enforce high wage increases. in total 32 percent.

Many US companies have been complaining about a labor shortage for some time, which is why wages are rising significantly. For the US Federal Reserve Fed, this means additional inflation risks. The Fed had paused tightening in June but simultaneously indicated further hikes.

Interest rate cuts, of course.

I did not speak of real or nominal wages but of wage increases in many areas. Of course, not everywhere. The fact is, wage development in the USA is getting out of control in some industries. Just like prices. DOW Jones, Dax at all-time highs.
Why should interest rates be lowered? That was or is exactly the problem. They waited far too long and can no longer contain inflation.

So, now go back to your basket!

In certain areas I agree with you, intuitively it also feels wrong to me, the PEs are historically still/again in the upper range, the partially implemented salary increases initially feel threatening.

However, in case of doubt I still trust a Dani Kalt from UBS more than my gut feeling, which didn’t exactly help me much back at university in economics :-/
The good man and his 200-man team simply do nothing else but deal with it.

With all his intelligence, man forms ideas about the functioning and future development of markets, which regularly turn out to be wrong. Also, his tendency to misunderstand achieved successes as proof of his genius deceives him. Sometimes he tends to extrapolate past trends into the future - and then things usually turn out quite differently than expected.

In numerous studies, researchers have shown that chimpanzees outperform their human relatives in investment decisions.

As is well known, I do not have an academic education, but I do have a very pronounced common sense. In that respect, I am more the ape than the studied economist. However, I don't care, the result counts.

I see interest rate cuts only in the context of an emergency rate cut triggered by an external event such as terrorism, war, or a stock market crash. I also cannot imagine the ECB lowering rates before the FED. Apart from that, the global economy is doing significantly better than the German economy.
For me, in any case, there is no reason to lower interest rates. I simply do not see it.

However, when in doubt, I still trust a Dani Kalt from UBS more than my gut feeling

But UBS itself has now become the biggest restructuring case in Swiss banking history. So the UBS analyst team can’t be that great. Quite the opposite. With a series of misjudgments, they have put the future of the traditional bank at risk. Without the SNB’s support, UBS would have been done for a long time ago. Derivative risks in the trillions and the takeover of CS are risks for me that are hardly manageable anymore.

But by all means, feel free to trust the analysts rather than your gut. I just do the opposite.

At some point, there simply won’t be "too big to fail" anymore. Then comes the fail.