I consider 12 kW to be quite large for a new building - but how "small" can pellets actually be? When it burns, it burns, right? I guess such heating systems are built with a large buffer tank anyway, so that you can actually use the fairly high heat sensibly without cycling 20 times a day. But I’m not a heating engineer...
Regarding heat pumps and crystal balls: At some point, all the forests will have been cleared through Eastern European overexploitation (and not replanted), or the governments of those countries will find an effective measure against it. And by then at the latest, pellets will become even more expensive and heat pumps will become interesting again. The fact that, due to the new subsidies, probably a high percentage of all old buildings will switch to pellets doesn’t make it any better.
But with a well-designed underfloor heating system, the renovation costs are quite manageable. Or my crystal ball is cracked anyway, then you can safely discard this whole post.