nothing at all comes up in the first 10 years in a new single-family house
You always talk about new construction in your argument. That is not the case here. I believe the OP did not say how old the house is.
House needs renovation. Bathrooms, floors, kitchen, terrace, a few windows.
But I also find the comparison of ancillary costs condominium vs. single-family house somewhat euphemistic. Even if I personally agree with you on many points.
But a simple "Costs for gardener, winter service etc. all go away. You do everything yourself!" is often not realistic.
I know many who thought they could/would do all that easily themselves. And after a year ended up regularly having the gardener come. Or in winter, with a corner lot and 40m of sidewalk, ended up commissioning winter service via flat rate because the city had already reminded them that the sidewalk was not cleared by 7 a.m.
These are just two examples. But I (41) do most things around and in the house myself and am already an oddball. Also among neighbors in their mid-thirties ;) most of them still treat themselves to service providers.
Salary increases are definitely there. About 5% for me in 2024
Hmm... that is effectively a huge loss in real wages. This year we will have something like about 8% inflation. Next year in the same range. In 2024 then maybe not quite as high. And only then do you get a 5% pay raise.
Or is the collective bargaining agreement not even included yet?
High inflation is great for your loan. But the calculation of your monthly costs will no longer match today’s numbers.
Calculate about 8% everywhere. And then another 8% on top of that. Then you have your costs in 2024. And compare those to your 5% higher salary. It’s very rough and depends on a number of factors. But life will definitely become more expensive.
So you will manage it all.
But it’s always better to roughly know the numbers beforehand.
A bit off-topic:
I’m noticing more and more that there are currently two types of people:
Those who are really afraid for their professional future. Often unfounded.
And those who shoot from the hip "my job is crisis-proof." Also often unfounded. Why shouldn’t QMs also be able to become unemployed? If a few companies relocate/close, the QMs end up on the street. The companies that are still desperately looking for staff now have also launched savings programs (personnel is always the first to go). Reduced demand is therefore opposed by increased supply.
I started my professional life in 2005. I still clearly remember unemployment rates over 10%. Highly qualified family fathers sat at home and no longer understood the world. Sometimes there were job offers: for a fraction of the salary previously earned.
All long ago and different circumstances. But very many now only know full employment and think it can never be otherwise. After all, one oneself is in high demand (in the boom).