Zinspoker - Long term or short term?

I honestly don’t understand how the calculations are done here?

As I said, sooner or later the obligation to renovate will come anyway. There are already efforts by the EU to mandate this. But if you have to renovate anyway, you might as well do it right away and benefit from low heating costs instead of waiting 10-15 years until you have to and the renovation becomes more expensive. The obligation is already coming in through the back door. If the oil burner breaks down, you will most likely no longer be allowed to install a new oil or gas heating system. Pellet high-temperature systems and heat pumps remain.

@TE: You must not underestimate the increased living comfort. It is priceless!

However, this is reduced by the energy-efficient renovation. The house has an 85 cm thick sandstone wall that ensures a fantastic indoor climate. If I start sealing the place completely from top to bottom, I will eventually have the sterile atmosphere of soulless new-build bunkers.

As I said, sooner or later the obligation to renovate will come anyway. There are already efforts by the EU to mandate this. But if you have to renovate anyway, you might as well do it right away and benefit from low heating costs instead of waiting 10-15 years until you have to and the renovation becomes more expensive. The obligation is already coming in through the back door. If the oil burner gives out, you will most likely not be allowed to install a new oil or gas heating system. That leaves pellets as a high-temperature system and the heat pump.

I don’t understand that? Because legal changes might possibly come sometime, is it reasonable to bet six-figure amounts on complex, financially risky renovations that at best break even after 40 years? That is an expensive bet!

I see, you don't want to renovate. Someone whispered that to you and now you're looking for reasons. The bunker atmosphere is likely to be present in the house even without renovation; 85cm is exactly double the wall thickness of most monolithic efficiency house 40 new builds

But for the sake of completeness:

Because legal changes might eventually come

The end of gas and oil heating in single-family homes has been decided. You simply are not allowed to install new ones. The only thing that can still stop this is the fact that at the beginning of 2024, neither the necessary craftsmen nor the required heat pumps will be sufficiently available. But then it will just happen 1, 2, 3 years later. The same goes for the renovation obligations.

So you probably don't need to be very afraid of renovation obligations. They certainly don't apply to occupied buildings, but only to the next sale. Or to the new heating system.

The indoor climate may be nice right now, but in winter it will be very uncomfortable. I hope you are not cold feet ;)

The end of gas and oil heating in single-family homes has been decided

Nonsense, you can still buy oil heating until 2026 and after that also as a hybrid system.
Gas has just now been declared a green bridging technology, there are no bans.

Prices are set globally and Germany is not the center of the world. All other countries also need gas. Especially in Europe. It will not work without gas from Russia. At least not affordably.

From an inflation technical perspective, we are only at the beginning. The Americans will fight inflation drastically with interest rate hikes. This will further weaken the euro strongly. The interest rate spread between the dollar and the euro will continue to grow.

Heating oil is currently the cheapest energy raw material. I see the advantage with heating oil that it is linked to the diesel price. And if that increases fivefold like gas, it will be bleak throughout Europe. France has already capped the diesel price at 1.50 euros. So in an emergency, you could pick up your heating oil at the gas station in France.

France has capped everything. Electricity at 17 cents, gas at 11 cents, and diesel at 1.50€.