Zinspoker - Long term or short term?

@Energy costs / Renovation: I would share the assessment of the previous speakers here. Energy will not return to the level of 2020 and before. Even if the war were to end in the next 1-2 years, there are too many other price drivers (climate protection measures, euro weakness, expensive measures to reduce dependencies on gas, oil, etc., e.g. LNG).

@Interest rate development: there are too many indicators that inflation will remain very high for a long time, at least in the Eurozone. Inflation can be effectively combated almost only by a significant increase in key interest rates, which will ultimately also continuously push up construction financing rates.

@Production and material costs: will continue to rise. Supply chains will no longer be what they once were, permanently not. The peak of globalization has been surpassed. A trend towards de-globalization (sustainability, reducing dependencies on China and co.) will clearly set in. Demographics in Germany are changing, and with that the resource of craftsmen. All price drivers.

Conclusion:
- Carry out renovation at the same time as purchase.
- Spread financing needs over 2 tranches: 1/3 for 10 years, 2/3 for 20 years with at least 5% special repayment and/or repayment rate change. If an inheritance is expected within the next 10 years, then also 20-year money cancellable and repayable after 10 years.

Not to be underestimated: there will be additional investment topics every year in the first 5 years that you do not have in focus today.

We will be subsidizing the (possible) lower gas prices for industry through the more expensive household gas.
I rather suspect that the price will settle in the medium term between 15 and 20 cents.
LNG isn’t exactly a bargain either.
In my opinion, the days of under 10 cents are gone. Even if peace returned tomorrow...

Well then buy calls and become a millionaire!
Just kidding, energy prices are also subject to the market and stock exchange mechanisms, there are always two sides to a deal, the higher the upside, the more brutally it will go down.

The problem is, just driving by is not an option, occasionally you also have to stop. :) I was also surprised by the (suddenly) high prices. Outrageous. Especially since E10 is currently 30-40 cents cheaper. That will cause a collapse starting 01.09. Regarding the house. (I repeat myself). Without proper renovation, it’s a money pit. Energy will not get cheaper anymore... why should it?!

If I completely renovate the house for a high six-figure amount, as suggested here for 200,000, and can save 60 percent on energy costs, I have to live in the house for 37 years. And that only works if prices never go lower again. If we settle at -20 percent, I have to live there for 55 years. Honestly, I don’t understand how the calculations are done here? Sure, I see that the psychological factor of having to pay a high amount to the energy provider can be burdensome. But in the other case, I pay it to the bank. By the way, without interest! With interest, even over 40 years or nearly 60. Sorry, but that’s not very clever.

Well then buy calls and become a millionaire!
Just kidding, energy prices are also subject to the market and stock exchange mechanisms, there are always two sides to a deal, the higher the upside, the harsher the downturn

And you believe that the golden Wall Street rules from 1980 still apply today? I rather suspect that we will get completely different rules of the game, and the good old Leviathan is just opening his sleeping eye..

But maybe we’re all just randomly lucky, and everything will be fine again next year. You never know. Only the interest rates are rising sharply again right now.

@TE: You must not underestimate the increased living comfort. It is priceless!

And you believe that the golden Wall Street rules from 1980 still apply now? I rather suspect that we will get completely different rules of the game, and the good old Leviathan is just opening its sleeping eye..

But maybe we are all just lucky, and next year everything will be fine again. You never know. Only the interest rates are rising sharply again right now.

Honestly, I don’t see that the normal market mechanisms have been circumvented? We have extremely high demand because supply has tightened due to Russia, and the storage facilities are empty due to low demand over the last two years. This leads to a high price, which had already risen beforehand due to political instruments such as the CO2 tax. What ghosts do you see?