Try to summarize...
An air-to-water heat pump is not suitable as heating for a Kfw 70 house located in the Alps or Harz. Where temperatures often fall below -15°C in winter, an air-to-water heat pump (depending on the winter) could be borderline (but still cheaper than gas, although the advantage of the air heat pump is significantly reduced). Actually, it can only be operated without problems in the climate-favored areas of Germany.
Unfortunately, the last winters have been somewhat colder, making air heat pumps less efficient, which the air heat pump manufacturers probably did not expect (because of global warming).
As far as consumption costs are concerned, an air-to-water heat pump still seems to have enough leeway compared to a gas heating system (1/4 lower consumption costs in central Germany). Taking into account the additional acquisition costs + possibly accruing loan interests, screed drying, etc., an air heat pump (130 sqm house) only pays off after more than 10 years.
Therefore, an air-to-water heat pump is best suited in a passive house or Kfw40 house and can be safely operated throughout Germany.
Can we leave it at that? Correct me if I’m wrong...