When prices fall...

...nothing happens that quickly... Don't forget the energy saving ordinance, the umpteenth tightening again soon?... And the craftsmen can't find any young talent anymore... Everything will keep getting more expensive - our economy simply employs too many "desk workers"... - at least, the interest rates will remain low.

... nothing comes that fast ... Don't forget the Energy Saving Ordinance, the umpteenth tightening soon again? ... And the craftsmen can't find any new recruits anymore ... Everything is still getting more and more expensive - our economy simply employs too many "desk jockeys"... - at least the interest rates will remain low.

Well, the craft sector decimated itself in the 90s and 2000s through layoffs, poor working conditions, lack of training positions, and countless bankruptcies. So young people back then went into other industries where conditions were better. You can't blame anyone for that. I myself was faced with the choice, back in 2000, to do something in the craft sector or— as happened — rather accept the office apprenticeship position at the government agency. But at that time we had significantly higher unemployment than today and the security of the future profession was the top priority. Today I might decide differently. Fortunately, more apprenticeship contracts are currently being signed again in the craft sector, so there is at least hope for improvement in the future.

Of course, this statement is generalized because it comes from a statistic (residential property price index)! However, it is representative and nicely shows the effects of cheap money and how my previous savings have been devalued! Of course, I could have prevented it.

And you are misquoting the statistic or not quoting it completely.

Because what you say may apply to the 10-15 years before 2010 (roughly estimated). But real estate has existed a bit longer.

Furthermore, it is and remains generalized because too many individual factors are not considered (region, just to name one), and thus the statement is totally useless for deriving anything for an individual decision. Except perhaps the insight that, as in almost all areas, there are phases.

Construction cost indices for residential buildings: Germany, quarters,
Type of construction costs
Germany
(2015=100)
Year
Quarters
Total construction costs Material costs Labor costs
2000 4th quarter 76.6 75.7 78.0
2001 4th quarter 76.9 75.5 79.0
2002 4th quarter 77.4 75.3 80.8
2003 4th quarter 78.1 75.7 81.8
2004 4th quarter 80.5 79.9 81.4
2005 4th quarter 81.7 81.4 82.1
2006 4th quarter 84.9 86.2 82.7
2007 4th quarter 86.8 87.6 85.4
2008 4th quarter 89.8 90.2 89.2
2009 4th quarter 90.1 89.4 91.3
2010 4th quarter 93.1 93.5 92.5
2011 4th quarter 96.0 96.7 94.8
2012 4th quarter 97.3 97.9 96.2
2013 4th quarter 98.0 99.3 95.8
2014 4th quarter 98.8 99.6 97.6
2015 4th quarter 99.8 99.4 100.6
2016 4th quarter 102.2 100.9 104.4
2017 4th quarter 106.0 104.4 108.9

Source: Destatis

Unfortunately, the statistics do not go further back.
What can be observed is wage restraint from 2000 to 2006.
Afterwards, rising labor costs.

Therefore, I do not see strongly falling construction costs.
Energy saving ordinance, etc., order situation have already been discussed.

Thought experiment:
If there should be a severe economic crisis and sharply rising interest rates, then I rather see a stagnation of construction prices. Also - and this has already been mentioned - construction costs respond only with a delay of 2-3 years. Before that, purchase prices would rather stagnate or fall.

Interest rates: Personally, I consider a Japanese scenario, extremely long low interest rates, to be possible.
If the ECB raises interest rates sharply, half of Southern Europe (Italy first and foremost) will go bust.

Purchase prices: At the moment, the demand surplus is extreme.
In an economic crisis and over a period of 5-10 years, a normalization of existing property prices might possibly occur.

One of the main problems: Building land
At least in Bavaria: The general mood is rather "against land consumption / against densification"
Therefore, the supply here remains tight.

And you are quoting the statistics incorrectly or not completely.

Because what you say might apply to the 10-15 years before 2010 (roughly estimated). But real estate has been around a bit longer.

Then maybe the parameters should be defined more precisely, but since a loan runs for about 30 years and a house has about 80 "lifespan years," a look back of 50 years should fit! Everything beyond that is no longer interesting to me and is very distorted by World War II and the post-war period!

However, I think that, to not stray too far from the topic, one can conclude that a single-family house/semi-detached house is not an investment but rather a piggy bank that offers inflation protection!

Interest rates: I personally consider a Japanese scenario, extremely long low interest rates, possible.
If the ECB raises interest rates sharply, half of Southern Europe (Italy first) will go bust.

I see it similarly, especially as an economic downturn is looming!

The problem in the trades has certainly become massively noticeable in recent years. But even here, a solution will be found, such as immigration or prefabricated houses! Another possible problem I see is smart homes. Because the technology market offers no value retention but will certainly take up an increasingly large part in the future, e.g., cars!

Of course, one could do without it, but then one would not fulfill the dream of homeownership!

Everything a bit difficult with the dream house
I’m first really looking at how much home I can afford! If I then see that owning a roof of my own puts pressure on too many other areas, I will probably just let it go or a future development, whichever it may be, will enable me to do this at a later point in time!

To all cool calculators - Many things in life work because you do them. Because you have the chance to learn from mistakes. Because money not only goes out but also comes in when you "do". Too much caution paralyzes and suddenly you realize you haven't "lived" enough. The word "Planungssicherheit" does not, to my knowledge, appear in any other language in this complete absurdity. Of course, there are basic considerations of reason - but as it is so nicely described in a Hägar cartoon: While the smart ones discussed, the fools stormed the castle. Anyone who wants to buy or build a house will, in most cases, also find a way.