When prices fall...

  • Erstellt am 2019-02-28 15:54:21

bauhead2018

2019-02-28 17:58:11
  • #1
So yes, I think construction prices will continue to rise, but for how much longer?

I am increasingly hearing about financing (sometimes even 100%) fixed at 1.5-2.5% for 25-30 years. So in my opinion, the time to fix rates is over and the prices for a single-family house or semi-detached house are above 320,000. With a repayment rate of over 2%, you still need those 30 years!

So the middle class probably cannot afford any changes in the parameters anymore, and thus I come to the conclusion that prices could stabilize at this level and possibly remain stable in the near future. Which would also make building nicer again, as developers would be somewhat relieved! Rents are also reacting somewhat sluggishly and will certainly continue to rise, which could make building/buying attractive again!

To tailor it a bit more to myself: A waiting period of 5-10 years is possible. I have already "partially secured" the low interest rates by buying a building plot. Currently, I can easily cover rent, savings, and plot financing with minimal risk!

I wanted to pay off this plot and start building when the time is right (construction costs). There will not be ONE answer, but maybe there are still some parameters I have not considered!
 

Caspar2020

2019-02-28 18:10:52
  • #2


We fixed for 27 years 1.5 years ago. Then everything is paid off.



That will take a while. There's still a lot of money..:
 

Jean-Marc

2019-02-28 20:03:24
  • #3
For falling prices, the number of interested parties in home ownership would have to decrease significantly, the supply of available and attractive properties would have to increase noticeably, or interest rates would have to rise sharply. Currently, none of this is in sight. At most, a stabilization of the price increase at the level of the inflation rate is conceivable.
 

nordanney

2019-02-28 20:22:50
  • #4
Good summary of the market situation. Even if the price increase – and this is to be expected, as all construction companies are currently filling their pockets – were to end in 2022, it would still take a few years for prices to come back down. All of this, however, on an already high settled level. If interest rates rise, which will lead to falling prices, you will end up spending the savings on construction costs over the next 30 years in interest expenses. So one should let go of the hope that things will get significantly better in the next 5-10 years – my personal opinion and my experiences in the market.
 

Mottenhausen

2019-02-28 21:57:38
  • #5
The fundamental problem is: when prices fall, it’s because no one is interested in building or buying anymore. Whether due to recession, high unemployment, economic situation, expensive financing, too strong inflation, etc. etc. So exactly at the moment when everyone wanting to build loses interest, including you. Everyone always thinks they are waiting for day X when prices fall because no one else is interested and they would then be the only person on the market who still has interest. That doesn’t work. You can practically not behave counter-cyclically in this situation.
 

Bookstar

2019-02-28 22:03:03
  • #6
Is not entirely correct. For example, if you have a lot of equity, rising interest rates might not matter to you. Or high unemployment doesn't have to affect you if you are a civil servant, etc.

But I know what you mean...
 

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