When prices fall...

There is a lack of living space. Still less is being built than demanded. This will probably balance out in three or four years. And prices are still not falling because of that. Therefore, I see no reason for falling prices from supply and demand. Cooling of the economy? Yes, it may come, but I believe it will rather lead to a balance of supply and demand and not to falling prices. Interest rates? Yeah, what does an old hand/colleague from the financing sector always say? Low interest rates, expensive houses; high interest rates, cheap houses. What you don't pay on the left, you pay on the right. (Exception: you have extremely high equity) Betting on real estate becoming cheaper in the future is, in my opinion, a gamble. That doesn't mean it can't happen. But if you look at the past, falling real estate prices haven't happened often, and if they did, the mood was so bad that you should consider whether you would want to build in such a phase if it repeats.

So I don’t believe in a 50% crash anytime soon! But in fact, prices have risen by about 35 percent since 2010! Until 2010, one would have made losses with a property! Loans are being fueled that are not justifiable, and global economic problems can at least offer an opportunity, which has always been the case! My equity is certainly not huge, but I do have some old savings, so I want to at least position myself; that means I’m at 15-20% of the total volume. If there is no improvement in the near future, I can still sell my land without loss and focus as a tenant on building my reserves! Or admit to myself that building is a luxury I can and want to afford! I want to say thanks first for the quick answers; if anyone has further objections that are not purely hypothetical but can help me with the problem of buying or building amid falling prices, please bring them on!

But in fact, prices have risen by about 35 percent since 2010! Until 2010, one would have made losses with a property!

The statement is as generalizing as it is wrong...

Loans are being fueled that are not justifiable, and global economic problems can at least offer an opportunity, which has always been the case!

They exist, have always existed; in my opinion, there is no significant increase to be seen. The housing credit directive has curbed a lot of that.

My equity is certainly not huge, but I do have some old bacon, which is why I at least want to position myself, meaning I am at 15-20% of the total volume.

Those are the incidental costs. With rising interest rates, you still have the problem of having to finance 80%.

But to play along with your thought, existing stock falls before new construction. Because on the one hand, the supply of land remains scarce anyway; the existing stock offering could be increased through sales. Also, the time delay for new construction is longer. In addition, generally more financial power is hidden in new construction, which will presumably be the case even in a worse environment. I am referring to single-family houses throughout.

I wanted to pay off this property and start building when the time was right (construction costs). There won't be ONE answer, but maybe there are some parameters I haven't considered yet!

This "opportunity" will not come, or will be so insignificant that there is no real "opportunity." What good is it if prices keep rising by more than 5% every year now and eventually there is a 6% correction.

My personal opinion: construction prices will outpace you and you will regret it more and more each year.

Another parameter: life is short, if you build now, you will live 10 years longer in "your" house and won't have to deal with other tenants, who in a rental apartment are much more on your case than when you have your own plot with a house. A house is also quality of life, so better live "better" for 10 years than feed a landlord. Life is short, make something of it.

Consider not only the total real estate costs but also the opportunity costs and investment alternatives. What does living cost you if you do not own a property? How would your capital develop if you invested it?

“Funny enough,” it is often worthwhile for people with substantial capital to build/buy real estate and rent it out while living in rented accommodation themselves, whereas for people with little equity, owner-occupied property acquisition is the more rewarding option.

In practice, it is ultimately the “desire” that decides, not the “profitability.”

But in fact, prices have risen by about 35 percent since 2010! Until 2010, one would have made losses with a property!

The statement is as generalizing as it is wrong...

Of course this statement is general, since it comes from a statistic (residential property price index)! But it is representative and nicely shows the effects of cheap money and how my previous savings have been devalued! Of course, I could have prevented it...

Do not only consider the total property costs, but also the opportunity costs and investment alternatives.

Yes, unfortunately I see a similarly great risk on the stock market in these planned 5-10 years, since the money would of course also have to be available suddenly! Therefore, I believe that my savings rate is well invested in a building plot and a small speculative part in the stock market! That should make it possible to generate appropriate equity in the next 5 - 10 years to hopefully execute my building project despite rising interest rates!

With stagnant construction costs, rent costs would of course continue to rise due to their inertia, which after a while would drive me into owning a home purely from an economic point of view.

Whether this decision will still be sensible 30 years later, of course, no one can predict!

Currently, I do not yet have reliable figures regarding my possible construction costs! But I will find out soon and then gladly continue to benefit from your experiences and opinions!

I just want to state: Construction prices will not fall as much within my planned time horizon as I would have liked!

A good purchase during this time seems more realistic, even if no big discount is expected here either!

Rent in our area has not increased nearly as much compared to purchase/construction costs, which is why I will probably continue to use this option for now! Unfortunately, wages have also not increased! Savings rate into the existing plot and ETFs and always reassess the situation from time to time!

There is another option: Combining the high selling prices by building with a partial sale! The plot is 750 sqm, which is why a semi-detached house or a granny flat/condo can be easily realized separately! But I have not really informed myself about this yet! Being a landlord is not an option!