Reference current construction prices / Build now or wait?

Uncertainty is always greatest among those who really don't need to worry. That's how it is. Meanwhile, construction prices haven't risen that much since 2021. The high interest rates are the problem. So anyone who only needs to finance a small amount and has the rest should definitely start now. Prices cannot fall significantly; wages, material costs, and, rightly, the profit expectations of all parties involved speak against that. If interest rates fall again in a few years, the price spiral will start up again. The desire for homeownership or the need for living space is still greater than what the market can provide.

But we actually only start the concrete planning once we have the plot.

Already written everything down and are currently having it drawn.

hm… that reads like a strong contradiction ;) about the costs: you can calculate that yourselves then. For a residential basement, roughly the same applies as for above-ground living space. In addition, there would be the outdoor facilities, which should be higher due to the granny flat, since most windows will be exposed, plus terrace and access path as well as a parking space for the granny flat separately.

Prices also largely depend on your wishes, the level of equipment, and your willingness to contribute your own work.
This is difficult to estimate on a superficial level. So go a bit deeper in the planning phase early on.

Thank you for your tip, we will probably do it that way. There is a large model park in Fellbach, we will visit it next week and get information.

One way would be
to ask a few prefab house manufacturers for an offer in a model home park with rough wishes and ideas.
That gives you a price range as information.
Under no circumstances sign anything there, no matter if the super price expires in one day.
Compare floor plans and concrete room sizes there to get a feel for necessary room sizes for you.
Walk through houses of acquaintances with a tape measure

Thanks for the tip. There is a large model park in Fellbach, which we will visit next week.

which plot it will specifically be. (400-600sqm).

For us it should be about 190sqm plus basement with granny flat.

You should also pay attention to the floor area ratio and the floor space index. Parking regulations could require 3 parking spaces, which can already become tight to impossible with 400 sqm.

I find the question about the timing of the construction in the current phase absolutely justified. Price and budget/interest rates currently do not match – by a wide margin. According to my information, prefabricated house manufacturers/banks are complaining about drops of more than 50%. That is tremendous.

If nothing can be done about the prices and interest rates do not fall, I would be surprised if all GCs, prefabricated house manufacturers, etc. remain in the market.

Some prefabricated house manufacturers now offer credits if the construction price index goes down in the near future. In my opinion, they certainly do this not out of charity, but because the issue is real and apparently many customers are not stupid and ask about it. Price reductions are no longer a taboo topic.

Although I do not have a reliable crystal ball either, I would not rush anything now and plan calmly. In my opinion, the situation can hardly get much worse, more likely better.

I fear that the renewed increase in truck tolls could cause material prices to rise again, as almost all goods are transported by road. This is likely to further tighten the price situation. We also thought, in terms of construction prices, that we had hit the worst possible time. But when interest rates went up as well, we realized that we were still lucky. There are so many influencing factors in this matter. In any case, I would not speculate on falling prices / better times. The interest rate level has reached a normal (even if many do not want to accept it) level, wages only move in one direction if at all, single-family houses are generally counterproductive in terms of climate and are politically debated from time to time. So what are we waiting/speculating/hoping for? Noticeable price reductions cannot be initiated by any construction company; this has to happen throughout the entire supply chain, which is currently not the case. This leads, among other things, to some going bankrupt. Even if they have already reduced their margins to a minimum, customers still stay away because it is not enough. Investors face a similar dilemma. They partly finance their housing construction through pre-sold units. The buyers for these units are absent because they cannot manage the financing. The result is stopped / not started projects and payment difficulties up to insolvency. Homeownership has become a luxury and by now a privilege for many.