Heat pump, electricity prices, gas prices - where is the journey heading?

It is basically like reading a crystal ball what, ...

This statement probably hits the nail on the head.

5-8 years ago, you would probably have gotten a severe head shake because of this question. Back then, oil/gas prices were steadily rising with no end in sight. At that time, oil/gas was demonized and everyone was only focused on heat pumps. No one could have imagined that it would go the other way again.

I think, as with the stock market, there is also a cyclical up and down in the prices of oil/gas. After prices have recently fallen so sharply again, certain production methods (oil sands) will no longer be profitable and will be discontinued. Then prices will rise again until the production methods become profitable again, and so on. The only thing that speaks against this theory is the capital requirement of the oil-producing countries. Russia MUST currently sell oil and gas to keep its budget stable. Thus, they fill the gap when, for example, other OPEC countries advocate a reduction to stabilize prices.

Natural gas reserves are sufficient for thousands of years, i.e. price increases are definitely not caused by a lack of supply ...

Is this really the case? If oil reserves are predictably running out—why should there still be massive gas reserves? Especially since the gas released during oil production is flared off. I do not ask this provocatively but because I am reading this statement for the first time. The only thing that might support this thesis are the new methods of natural gas extraction. However, I am rather skeptical regarding fracking and others.

With regard to our electricity consumption, we have at least partially made ourselves independent through our own photovoltaic system. Does it pay off? Probably yes—I am quite optimistic about that. At the moment, we have not yet coupled the heat pump with the photovoltaic system because we (so far) chose the cheaper heat pump electricity. But if this rises above a certain point, we would have the electrician do his work and switch.

Yes, a few months ago I read an article (I think in [Welt] or [Spiegel]) that stated that it is now assumed that much more gas can be extracted through new extraction technologies and technologies such as LNG and GTL, because, for example, associated gases (so-called operational gases) that escape during the extraction of raw materials are also used for energy generation. In addition, it is assumed that the global demand for fossil fuels is declining. Furthermore, new, enormous fields are constantly being developed, and countries such as Iran with huge deposits are being given access to the market. All in all, this leads to the assumption that the reserves will last for thousands of years now.

However, I consider it to be a naïve calculation by the architect to say that houses have never been heated as cheaply as today. Of course, it was different 15 years ago. But back then, houses were not insulated as well as they are today. The monetary effort required for that is considerable. First, you invest thousands of euros in better insulation standards and then enjoy a few hundred euros in savings per year. That does not mean that I am against it. Not at all. But using that as a comparison and thereby justifying the efficiency of a heat pump is very misleading. This is also the reason why hardly anyone thinks of using heat pumps in old buildings... because they cannot keep up in efficiency with a gas condensing boiler or a pellet heating system. Electricity simply has the worst efficiency in heat generation.

This statement is probably the most accurate.

Is this really the case? If oil reserves are predictably running out - why should there still be massive gas reserves? Especially since the gas escaping during oil extraction is immediately flared.
I am not asking this provocatively, but because I am reading this statement for the first time.
The only thing that might support this thesis are the new methods of natural gas extraction. However, I am rather skeptical about fracking and others.

.

Exactly this gas that is flared is now supposed to be recovered. On the topic of fracking, I am also skeptical, but rather because I believe the world will have no choice. Unfortunately. There is also an interesting article about this.

Yes, with a heat pump you have no maintenance costs and don’t need a chimney. It’s different if you want to install a fireplace anyway.

Personally, I don’t see it that way, since, like with a refrigerator, there isn’t much to maintain.

Manufacturers see it increasingly differently... and it is only a matter of time until it becomes mandatory for the warranty to apply.
Let’s not fool ourselves, it will come sooner or later.

By the way, how long does a heat pump actually last? Does anyone know of any long-term studies?

And on the topic of heat pumps, here is a critical experience report from a journalist.

Of course, there are positives and negatives on both sides. That’s why the topic cannot be conclusively answered and it remains a matter of crystal ball gazing... but I find your opinions on this interesting. And so far, heat pump + photovoltaic + storage is emerging.


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I have deleted the link in accordance with the forum rules – also because the post dates back to 2013 and I am almost certain that it installed an air-to-air heat pump.

Rhenish greetings
Building expert

In addition, it is assumed that the global demand for fossil fuels is declining.

Now you can argue well again. Why is demand declining? Electricity generation from renewable sources as an alternative. More and more new electricity producers = falling prices!? Decline in oil/gas production = falling prices, because although there are large reserves or rising prices, more and more companies are withdrawing from the business because it is uneconomical (the current oil/gas prices in relation to costs are already clearly too low)!? So it's all just a look into the crystal ball.