Follow-up Financing 2030 Prepare Now Building Savings Contract/Special Repayment/Fixed Deposit

Everyone can do what they consider responsible and what risk they want to take. And I believe the investors in Frank Thelen's fund „10XDNA“ would be quite glad that they did not invest their money there (-50% within half a year). Of course, one can lose a lot in a fund as well.

Since markets always rise permanently, the probability is significantly higher.

Well, with individual stocks it’s already clear that the “always permanently” part is not true (we all agree on that here). If you look more broadly (DAX, S&P, or any World indices), it’s more likely. Whether an economy necessarily must (and should) grow permanently, let’s say, people aren’t so sure about that nowadays anymore ;) “post-growth” or “degrowth” is the keyword for anyone who wants to browse or something. In my own words, the question especially in developed countries is whether from some point on always more, always more efficient is still necessary at all, or whether we would eventually be more fulfilled and happier if, on the contrary, we produced less and perhaps as a society worked less (and the economy as a result would shrink). Resources are finite and the population doesn’t keep growing and growing either, which was indeed a driver for growth. Well, I also believe that this is still more a thing for the future, and I think especially in crisis times like now, many things are disrupted that will ramp up again afterwards and such, but I just wanted to throw out there that “the economy MUST grow, ALWAYS!!!” is not an entirely undisputed thesis.

Everyone can do what they consider responsible and whatever risk they want to take. And I believe the investors of Frank Thelen’s fund “10XDNA” would be quite glad if they hadn’t invested their money there (-50% within half a year). Of course, you can also lose a lot with a fund.

But it is also the opposite of broadly diversified. And the fund is explicitly designed to bet on the next big thing, which makes it even riskier. And the current time is simply not the right one for that. Ten years ago, you would certainly have made money with it, but rising interest rates are poison if all you can show is the hope for future profits. And yes, the data basis for most things is “only a few decades.” Although that is still a good 100 years in breadth and sometimes even more. Before WW2, however, in many countries the data basis is rather poor; no one thought anyone might be interested in it back then ;) It is clear, however, that in a rational world the owner of a company (and shareholders are nothing else) must always get a higher long-term return than the company’s creditors. In case of doubt, the creditor is served before the shareholder, but a rational shareholder will have to expect a higher return. For that, in record profit years, the holder of a bond receives their agreed x% and the shareholder benefits from the good year. By the way, I don’t believe in post-growth for the foreseeable future. That is currently a popular topic again, but we have 8 billion people in this world, most of whom still want to reach the Western standard of living. And with ways to achieve that with fewer resources than before, a lot of money can be made.

I am not concerned with ideas, theories, and theses. The system is currently designed in such a way—whether good or bad or even sustainable for longer than the next 20 years—I have not spoken about that.

And with ways to achieve this with fewer resources than before, a lot of money can be made

Yup, I also currently see more of a shift to other areas rather than a real "degrowth", but I didn't want to leave the "it HAS to be that way" as if it were a quasi-law of nature either ;)

I am in a similar situation and will invest 70% of the amount I can repay with a special repayment in fixed-term deposits, which each mature at the end of the interest rate lock-in period. This means this year for 9 years, next year for 8 years, and so on. At least as long as the credit interest rate is lower than the savings interest rate (compound interest must be considered!). The rest goes monthly into ETFs on the MSCI World. This way, you take fluctuations with you, which usually leads to a good entry price. By the way, we have deliberately not set the repayment as high as possible in order to keep this leeway (financing still at 0.9%).