Follow-up Financing 2030 Prepare Now Building Savings Contract/Special Repayment/Fixed Deposit

You just need to know two things:

1.) With stocks/ETFs you can make a lot of money
2.) With stocks/ETFs you can lose a lot of money

The chance is 50%/50%.

Sometimes higher, sometimes lower, but nothing is certain. I agree with my previous poster. Whether the low prices now will be even lower in a few years is just as possible as a strong increase in value. But the current news from Silicon Valley gives little hope for the latter. You have to be aware that you can either lose a large part of your money or also gain. The probability for this is still 50%/50%. For me, that would be too risky with the current market situation. Not that later you might not be able to repay at all because there is simply no money left...

The chance is 50%/50%.

Just because you have two possibilities does not automatically mean that the chance is 50/50.

What is truly certain in life? Basically, the new, increased fixed interest rate is also nonsense. Then I get 2% interest with a real loss of purchasing power of over 10%. That still leaves me at -8. That is nothing more than gambling that inflation will normalize again. And honestly, (even historically) I consider it much more likely that ETFs will recover and come back to 8-10% returns per year than that inflation will soon move back below 2%.

Two notes on the topic.
- You assume that the original poster necessarily withdraws the money at time X to pay down the loan. But that doesn’t have to be the case; with 140k he has all options open.
- With Silicon Valley stocks, you can currently see the effects of rising interest rates. When future earnings are discounted, rising rates lead to price losses. However, this has its limits, because on the one hand, interest rates do not rise indefinitely, and on the other hand, the effects level off quite quickly. As for Twitter specifically... nothing could have happened to a Twitter shareholder that was better than the takeover at an inflated price. The company burns a lot of money, and growth was already more wishful thinking a year ago ;)

If you want to be on the safe side, take a look at [Inhaberschuldverschreibungen der Hessischen Landesbank]. It currently offers 3.75% interest per year for a term of 7.5 years.

Just because you have two options does not automatically mean the chance is 50/50.

Yes, you can also lose 90% of your assets, but also gain 90%. But you simply cannot be sure that your stocks will rise in price; they can just as well fall... And anyone who bought a used, poorly insulated, overpriced property a year ago, which they could now get for half, is probably very annoyed too. But that's life. What is really secure when investing your money? Nothing. Everyone has to decide for themselves what their personal risk assessment in the case is. However, it is clear to say that the chance of a price gain in stocks is just as high as a price loss (50%/50%).