Hello, regarding the additional price of 15,000 EUR you mentioned for a geothermal heat pump, that is quite within the range we have also been quoted by construction companies.
1. If you calculate with a demand of 15,000 kWh, for the geothermal heat pump at 600 EUR at 15 cents per kWh, an annual performance factor of 3.75 would result and for the air heat pump 3.125. Basically not far from any reality. However, I would expect a geothermal heat pump with probes to be significantly higher. Also, this electricity price assumes existing heat pump tariffs. Here with us, heat pump electricity would cost over 17 cents plus about 55 EUR additional basic charge per year and is absolutely not green.
2. In the municipality where we are buying our plot (the house is still in planning), you cannot just put an air heat pump anywhere. It is also about how much the noise could disturb the neighbors.
3. No. An air heat pump is completely inefficient at -20 °C outside temperature. In addition, with a heat pump with probes, the temperature is the same all year round in the depth from which the "temperature is extracted." In Berlin, this area is at about 20 to 30 meters depth. From here on, with every meter you drill deeper, the temperature is the same year-round and increases with depth. So it is relatively irrelevant to the geothermal heat pump whether it is -20 °C or +20 °C "above."
4. Basically, he is not advising incorrectly when he says there is shale; he does not recommend probes. Drilling would be very expensive here. According to the conversations we have had so far, an air heat pump costs more than 10,000 EUR less compared to geothermal with drilling. Since the drilling was not planned here, the 2,000 EUR can be within range. I really cannot judge.
Depending on the region you live in (we want to build near Berlin), I would never install an air heat pump because they become extremely inefficient at subzero temperatures and that is exactly when you need them (who heats in summer anyway).
But even the geothermal heat pump relativizes itself for us in the current planning again. We want to build sustainably and ecologically, but that should not come at the cost of living quality. In other words, if we spend tons of money on ecology, there will be no money left afterwards for, for example, a nice kitchen. We are not that "eco" after all.
Let’s assume the quoted 600 EUR for the geothermal heat pump compared to 1,200 EUR for gas would be correct. Then, with additional costs of 15,000 EUR, a simplified payback period of 25 years results! That, again simplified, assumes that gas and electricity prices rise at the same rate. But electricity prices (electricity is what the heat pump works with and the condensing boiler only needs a little) have risen significantly more. You can also be eco-friendly with gas; after all, there are biogas providers like sand by the sea (just like green electricity providers). Our current consideration therefore goes in the direction of a condensing boiler for support and a large solar system with a very large storage tank.
P.S. Why do I only refer to drilling above? In my opinion, investing in a geothermal heat pump only makes sense if you can also drill deep because otherwise the advantages are lost and the investment costs are still much higher than for an air heat pump. At a depth of 6 meters, it is simply colder in winter and therefore the heat pump is not as efficient as it could be.