My thread has really drifted off in a different direction. I like the idea of mixing a portfolio. Commodities, stocks, certificates, real estate, additional hedges, and a long investment horizon make a lot of sense. If I could find an expert like you at the current state of the indices who could get me just 2% return with a bank guarantee over an investment horizon of 10-15 years, then I would start to consider it. Since that will never be the case, the question is moot. Those who invested in 2000 and 2009 and therefore know what can happen are currently better off leaving it alone depending on their risk tolerance and future plans (house construction). In 2000, stocks were mainly bought on credit in the private sector. Talk to people who were still invested in 2003. Buying risky investments on credit is really not a good idea, especially if you want to build a house.