Hi Michael,
great that I was able to help you move forward a bit in your considerations.
The 2016 KFW100 corresponds in large parts roughly to the current KFW70.
So you have a good calculation basis for your decisions (which heating system, which additional insulation).
With the gas condensing boiler you are making a very small mistake.
Yes: The systems are off about 35% of the year (approximately). Even in summer, it sometimes rains for days and you need hot water. The coverage rate of the thermal solar system with 5 sqm at my place is below 50%.....(the capital costs for the TSA are not included in the above 50,-, there I only listed the direct costs of the energy carrier without auxiliary energy (pumps)).
When the boiler is needed for heating in winter: it often runs (at my place) with about 3kW output. That means part-load operation, the lower limit. Even last winter at -10 degrees the device (the smallest in the manufacturer's program) operated at 23-30 % base load range occasionally, the place gets cozy warm at 22 degrees. Part-load operation is not optimal for the device. But it still works.
Downside: Systems tend to cycle quite a bit in a Kfw 70, these houses no longer have a large energy demand and actually everything on the market is already oversized for such a small house like mine with 135 sqm usable area. The cycling puts a great strain on the lifespan of a gas condensing boiler. Additionally, no heating engineer takes the time to optimize the system for weeks so that the cycling lands in a somewhat “healthy range” (approx. << 10 burner starts per hour of runtime). I started with 60 starts/burner hour.....Weeks later I had programmed the system so that it was usable, I think I now know the manual of the heating system by heart.....
I definitely expect to have to buy a new gas condensing boiler in 12, at the latest 15 years. Given the bargain price of the devices....bearable.
However: An air-water heat pump also needs to be optimized......that is a lot of work too.
Best regards
Thorsten