Have construction costs increased so much in the last 2 years?

Scenario d) Stagflation, i.e. recession/depression like 2009 (triggered by trade conflicts and the automotive industry and then spreading to other sectors) accompanied by inflation (rising costs of energy, housing, mobility, food, import tariffs).

Wages and wage development rather falling, overtime, collective bargaining and bonuses eliminated. Mortgage repayment options therefore worsen, property values fall despite rising or stagnant rents. Risk premiums on mortgages rise and thus market interest rates (not: refinancing rates), property values therefore fall further... Corporate profits also decline, stock markets fall accordingly. Wages fall further as a consequence, etc.

Basically the "Japan scenario". And apparently federal politics, NGOs, the EU and the ECB are all diligently working towards this. ops:

Your described scenarios, I think, will not occur. I expect a war in the worst case, and in the best case a total currency crash. That means everything will be thrown into chaos with unpredictable consequences.

Well, then the question is what will happen to the real estate in the currency crash. Forced mortgages at what level? Can one afford them, and if not, what then?

Scenario d) stagflation, i.e. recession/depression like in 2009 (triggered by trade conflicts and the automotive industry and then spreading through other sectors) with simultaneous inflation (increasing costs of energy, housing, mobility, food, import tariffs).

Wages and wage development rather falling, overtime, collective bargaining and bonuses are eliminated. Repayment options for mortgages thus worsen, property values fall despite rising or stagnating rents. Risk premiums on mortgages rise and thus market interest rates (not: refinancing rates), real estate values therefore fall further... corporate profits also decrease, stock markets fall accordingly. Wages drop further as a result, etc.

Basically the "Japan scenario". And it seems that federal politics, NGOs, the EU, and the ECB are all diligently working towards this. ops:

I myself started my professional career in 2009 (1 application and got the job directly with a starting salary of €45k). I can’t remember there being a recession in 2009. Sure, orders collapsed and there were zero rounds in salary adjustments, but that was it from my point of view. You also didn’t have to pay €10 for bread.

But I am not talking about individual fates. But even if you had started in 2005 with 40 KE, had received 5 TE as a bonus and overtime, and had managed a borderline real estate financing in 2007, the situation might have played out very differently. First the bonus gone, overtime gone, then short-time work registered. Then maybe a partner whose company goes bankrupt and who only gets a lower-paid job after months of unemployment... this was very often the case in 2009 and 2010. The GDP collapse of 5% was more than severe.

So I also don't remember any depression in 2009. I rather remember how we back then still sold savings bonds with 4.x % interest and building society members had a credit interest rate of 3.x %. And if I remember correctly, from 2010 to 2012 really high collective wage agreements were achieved compared to 2019. I also remember a stock market rally that has lasted since then, doubling the major indices in this period.

Therefore, my motto: In Scrabble, you can wonderfully attach the word Chance to the word Krise. It always depends on what you make of it yourself.

Of course, it can also go backwards and bonuses can be cut. For this reason, we have calculated our financing completely without these special payments and therefore it would not bother us in the financing either.

I also don't believe in a war in Europe or the Western world in the next few years. And if one should come, to be honest I would worry about other things than real estate prices or their financing.