Have construction costs increased so much in the last 2 years?

The active participants here do not reflect the average income of the Federal Republic of Germany. It has always been the case and will continue to be that not everyone can afford to own a home.

On the topic: 5-10% p.a. are quite realistic for me in the current construction boom period. Especially now or in the last 12 months, when everyone still wants to take advantage of the [Baukindergeld], whether existing buildings or new construction.

Rumor has it that next year the craft industry will have more breathing room because people can no longer build due to fewer plots of land.

Can anyone assess this??

I have a bit of the same impression in my East Bavarian area. The development areas in planning or development are fewer. Although a lot is being built, there are also many capacities (construction companies). When we signed our construction contract in September, our contractor started immediately. I had the impression that he really wants the order for capacity reasons. Two other companies in close consideration would have also started immediately.

I cannot confirm that. There are craftsmen missing here. The whole thing will not normalize that quickly.

I read yesterday that here in Hamburg, in some areas, rents are even decreasing, with an average increase of only 2.x%. One could almost interpret that maybe the end is coming soon.

One swallow does not make a summer.

For individual regions it may "calm down," but overall I don't believe that it will change in the short term. And for everyone who is already fully in recession mode and believes the big downturn is coming... in some industries it is already heading in the other direction (upwards) and there are already capacity shortages again... some say the recession is "cancelled." I don't know if that's sustainable either, but it doesn't sound like the construction industry will soon have nothing to do.

We regularly have this type of discussion in the forum and I will respond with my standard explanation, which best fits my personal worldview:

The absolute costs are totally irrelevant. These will always be oriented based on how much people can afford, purely from the monthly installment and with the retirement age as the end date of the financing. That has been the constant over the last decades.
...

Whatever the situation for your children in 20 to 30 years, they will have the chance to get a house.

You are conditionally right, except that fewer and fewer people can actually afford a house. Because incomes and purchase prices are developing massively apart. My children, at best, can only afford an apartment on their own or a house not at 30, but only at 50 years old. Regardless of whatever job they have later. Without equity, nothing works.

Since wages are only slowly rising but house prices continue to rise rapidly, the buyer group will keep getting smaller. According to supply and demand, a normalization would actually be expected. But people have been thinking that for 10 years now...