Beginnings of a possible property | Questions about the building savings contract

Just received an email with the interest rate commentary from ImmobilienScout. It at least confirms my thoughts that there is no need to act hastily:

Greece Crisis, To Be Continued
Almost everything has been written about sensible, possible, and pointless outcomes of the Greece crisis. All scenarios have also been played through. Many are tired of the topic. Greece has now been insolvent for at least about a week, but obviously, this hardly impresses the financial markets given the only slight fluctuations. The "institutions" seem for the first time determined to provide further support only with concrete reforms. However, no one should believe that the negotiations about the Greek drama will end with the referendum on July 5th.


Interest Rate Development

In the last two weeks, interest rates have only risen slightly. The 5-year construction loan rates rose from 1.34 to 1.37 percent. In the 10-year range, interest rates remain constant at 1.80 percent. Fifteen-year conditions rose slightly from 2.27 to 2.30.


Outlook

The ongoing Greece crisis is causing uncertainties in the financial markets and thus potentially leading to fluctuating interest rates in the coming months. In the medium term, however, the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) will determine the interest rate level. The ECB is determined to ensure low interest rates for the foreseeable future. Even interest rate cuts are conceivable if, in the further course of the financial crisis, international investors decide on asset reallocations and increasingly buy German government bonds.

Quite interesting, but do you think I should "simply" save equity and then, for example, after 2 years, enter a purchase project without a plan, then hope for a low interest rate? I always thought it was "strategy beats interest" or something like that.

... it makes sense in this regard that I assume that interest rates will not be in the 2% range in 3 years and I want to secure this now.

I understand that. But you should ask yourself whether it’s even worth it.

You are securing the interest rate only for the building loan contract and that is just 58,000€. And that is the interest rate for in about 7 years (at allocation), not in three years.

You are buying this with a high monthly burden that then is no longer available for equity buildup and subsequent repayment of the loan. That means after ten years you have a higher residual debt and higher interest expenses. And you still have to refinance 50,000€ (according to your example in #19).

Of course, after the savings phase you can also put the savings rate into the loan; the option without the building loan contract will still be ahead.

Whether this whole game is worth it depends on the interest rate in 10 or 12-13 years. But for it to really be worthwhile, it has to be very high.

Just play around with the numbers a bit and calculate it yourself to get a feel for it.

... always thought it was "strategy beats interest" or something like that.

What you want to do is not a strategy, but a planless signing of a home savings contract. :P

You have heard different opinions. Ultimately, you have to decide based on your conviction. Unfortunately, nobody has invented a crystal ball for the interest rate in 2 years yet. I think you just have to "play around" with different assumptions for the future and see if you are happy with your construct. Compare it with a pure annuity loan and you will see what is cheaper.

Thanks to both of you again for the nuanced words! But your statements do indicate that if I want to buy a property in 2-5 years, I should currently do nothing except accumulate equity? And then take out a "possibly" favorable loan?

Dass was Du machen willst ist aber keine Strategie, sondern ein planloses abschließen eines Bausparvertrag.

I am willing to pursue another strategy, but which one?!