1.5 years after launch, only one-third of new build apartments have been sold

I basically agree with you. However, the finances at Bonava do not look that dramatic now. But sure, when it hits the fan, it really hits the fan. Although in case of doubt, Bonava could sell a lot of properties at lower prices. The margin will still be sufficient. But if those go down the drain, the real estate industry is done for a while. And in my case, it is a semi-detached house. Since payment is made according to the construction progress and the production obligation can be canceled, the land already secures the first payments.

I basically agree with you. However, the finances at Bonava don’t look that dramatic right now. But sure, if it blows up, it blows up. Although in case of doubt, Bonava could sell many properties at lower prices. The margin will still be sufficient. But if those go out the window, the real estate industry is finished for the time being.

In the wastebaskets of the stock exchange floor, quite a few other well-sounding disposable company names have already ended up. A publicly traded company is by design always at risk, especially if it (typically) has zero percent private equity off the exchange.

And in my case, it is a semi-detached house. Since payments are made according to construction progress and the manufacturing obligation can be cancelled, the land already secures the first payments.

You have a low risk there. My previous post referred mainly to condominiums. The risk grows with the size of the homeowners’ association. This does not apply even remotely comparably to the overall size of a semi-detached house construction project. At least once the development is completed, you can be relaxed.

I just bought from Bonava. I can’t imagine that insolvency is imminent there. The restructuring mainly affects their own craftsmen. Outsourcing is now cheaper there.

I basically agree with you. However, the finances at don’t look that dramatic now.

2023: net annual loss quadrupled... (Bonava AB) And how do you know the exact figures of Bonava Germany? Oh yes, Interboden also claimed last fall, "Interboden has ‘long prepared and drawn conclusions’ regarding the crisis situation of the entire market," a company spokesperson said at the time. Insolvency was ruled out. And today? Don’t want to scare you, but without explicit insight into the business figures, you can’t make a judgment today. Even though Bonava is one of the big players. But Interboden, Signa, Gerch, Euroboden, Project Immobilien, etc. were worth billions. Oh, and Swedish real estate companies are currently doing particularly badly, and there are many more insolvencies there than here. Just as a side note.

At Bonava, quite a few things are already amiss. For example, the CEO recently fired the CFO, Bonava Germany is laying off 30% of its employees, and Bonava had to quickly raise new capital because otherwise they would not have been able to service their loans. To do this, they issued new shares at a time when the stock price is at rock bottom (currently €0.69; that’s -50% in the last 6 months; the peak was once €14).

However, things probably look hardly better at most other companies. The difference is that Bonava, as a publicly traded company, has to publish such news while the sole proprietor from the village next door always boasts that everything is fine and the next day 'surprisingly' files for insolvency.

There are already quite a few problems at Bonava. For example, the CEO recently fired the CFO, and Bonava had to raise new capital on short notice because otherwise they would not have been able to service their loans. To do this, they issued new shares at a time when the share price is in the cellar (currently €0.69; that is -50% in the last 6 months; the peak was once €14).

However, it probably looks hardly any better at most other companies. The difference is that Bonava, as a publicly traded company, has to publish such news while the sole proprietor from the neighboring village always loudly claims that everything is fine and then announces "surprisingly" bankruptcy the next day.

Correct. But the sole proprietor loses his own hard-earned money (example Interboden). Normally, he is much more cautious than corporations, which as a bank simply hand us the keys to a project and say, "Oops, that went badly and unfortunately we are insolvent." And three weeks later, the people involved reappear on the market with other companies. Annoying...

At Bonava, quite a few things are already amiss. For example, the CEO recently fired the CFO,

When a CEO alone decides on such a key personnel matter as the EOF aka "CFO," I cannot disagree with the diagnosis that something is seriously wrong. The fall of Rome is unfortunately still interpreted as a recipe (just as the "Peter Principle" on a smaller scale).

Bonava Germany is laying off 30% of its employees,

... and then the milkmaid thinks that means 70% are left. In reality, at such a time, the best have long since left. And the golden handshake for one or the other terminated contract puts the final nail in the coffin.

But the sole proprietor loses his own hard-earned money (example Interboden). He is usually much more cautious than corporations, which as a bank also simply hand us the key to a project and say "Oops, that went badly and unfortunately we are insolvent." And three weeks later the people involved reappear on the market with other companies. Nasty...

Well, that’s a fundamental difference between Willi Winzig & Sohn KG and a publicly traded dream AG.

and Bonava had to raise new capital on short notice because otherwise they would not have been able to service loans. For that, they issued new shares

This form of permitted insolvency delay is the real scandal.