First of all, thank you for the valuable input. These are exactly the considerations and discussions that I can really use right now, even though, of course, the decision ultimately has to be made by oneself.
Option 2.
Interest rates will rise moderately at most over the next two years, rather stagnate.
The raw material shortage will normalize somewhat again and with it the prices.
Furthermore, time pressure is never a good advisor.
That is currently the consideration. I could practically finance the plot with equity. The question is what will happen with interest rates. In our example, we are currently at 2.5%. Last week it was still 2.1%. Our financing expert and the branch manager of my house bank, with whom I have a close relationship, both expect interest rates to rise moderately to a level around 3 percent by the end of the year. Many credit institutions now only make daily current offers. Quite a lousy time. At least securing current conditions? Through a forward contract probably makes little sense for the limited time. It’s a speculation.
But you already have 2 children who can use the house now, so the aspect of "waiting" sounds not sensible to me. Especially since you only have "2" years.
As long as you can afford it, I would start the construction. But only if the own house project is very important to you. I don’t see any advantage in terms of return, but emotionally it can make a big difference.
We can still afford it, but only because we can now allocate other monthly repayments. Emotionally, I am wired differently. I do not have the flowery dream of a home of one’s own and to me a house is something for the next 20-25 years. After that, when the children are grown, I will live somewhere else.
You seem to have a good income and can probably afford one or the other additional costs or delays. Then I would start now.
If it is rather tight and +100,000 € would financially break your neck, I would not start anything at all in the current situation. You don’t even know what will happen in two weeks .....
Yes, income-wise it works well. I became a civil servant, my wife has a secure job. We are the upper middle class (is that how you say it?) Not rich but really content. We could afford a delay, but in the end it’s also about the willingness. Compared to the last plans, we are already 200k over. No additional house costs are factored in yet.
How exactly is your construction obligation structured? What exactly do you have to have built by when?
I would only speculate limitedly on new subsidies. Basically, in the future, new construction will no longer be subsidized as absurdly as it was in recent years. I would expect 10-20k; that hardly makes a difference in your total budget. Accordingly, I would not wait for a subsidy about which it is not yet clear whether you qualify or what additional measures are necessary.
I would also bring up the topic of lifetime here. How old are your children? Every year you wait will reduce the time you spend together in the new house. Since you have already almost finished planning the house, I tend towards the variant to build as quickly as possible. Provided that you are financially able to bear further price increases.
The construction obligation requires that one must have started one’s building project within 2 years. The requirements are vague. What does started mean? Signing a contract for work? Being finished? That’s pretty vague. Regarding the subsidy, I agree with you. That is no reason for or against.
Keyword lifetime: Our children are 6 and 8. Now they need a garden and a nice environment. And we currently have that while renting. At the moment, I can’t imagine anything nicer than the current apartment that we completely renovated, painted, wallpapered, and furnished with furniture three months ago, by the way. So much for the topic of the right time... The problem is that we will eventually need an additional room. The time here is therefore without pressure but limited. In 5 years it will be too small. Two years ago we bought a condominium here in our desired area, which we currently rent out. That is our "emergency option" should we have to move out unexpectedly. We don’t want to move in there due to lack of a garden, but purely in terms of size it would be possible. It’s all quite complicated.
I currently tend to secure the plot in any case. That goes without headaches. The only risk I take is the fact that I am buying it at a price of 1.25 through the sealed bid process. I am basically paying a 25 percent premium compared to the other, regularly marketed plots. But the location and layout are good. That is my only financial "risk" if I buy the plot first. And then take my time without time pressure to check when it is serious to start again. If the general contractor says that you currently have a lead time of 14-15 months anyway, it naturally makes sense to start after all. Until the excavators roll, another 1.5 years will pass.