We were also faced with the decision and chose an air-to-water heat pump.
A gas condensing boiler was completely ruled out for us. Our developer would have only installed one with a high flow temperature, which would have made the underfloor heating unsuitable for heat pumps.
Since we have to finance our project, we decided on the heat pump with the lower initial cost, namely the air-to-water heat pump.
According to our calculations, the savings in consumption costs with the geothermal heat pump would not be sufficient to recoup the additional costs.