Future construction cost development in the next 3-5 years

This idea is kind of.. yeah.. porno?

a it does have something of Magic

I see it differently. Take the extreme example of Munich. There, people pay 35-40 times the annual rent for apartments. After deducting costs, that is practically 0 return. At the same time, rents are already very high. Take a look at the Wikipedia article on population development in Munich. The development in recent years is ridiculously low overall. Sometimes 10,000 more, sometimes less. The unstoppable rush to the city? Not true at all. Also look at the growth forecasts from the past that were set for 2015-2020. They predicted 100,000 more people than there actually are. The expected influx did not happen significantly. Nevertheless, purchase prices are skyrocketing. That has nothing to do with a rush into the city, but in my opinion with the desire for investment opportunities, driven by cheap debt capital. I call that a bubble. The purchase price no longer corresponds to an appropriate real value.

Mobility, CO2, working hours clearly point to the countryside for me – less commuting, more flexible work from home. The service sector provides the high wages, whose recipients can afford city life. However, it is precisely the service sector where personal presence is becoming increasingly unimportant. Office jobs are done from home and branches of insurance companies or banks need fewer people because customers handle their business from home.

I also work in the industry and do think we are experiencing exciting times. However, one must, as always, be careful which hype is currently being driven through the village. Everyone can spell digitalization; some CSU nobody even becomes state minister for this important issue , but above all it is one thing: a sales argument. The budgets are really huge, some are slowly forgetting their brains. The main thing is new, fancy, hip and fast. Sorry, agile, of course. Because the roller is coming that will crush everything. Those who were coaches before are today agilists, scrum masters, feel good managers, digital evangelists. Blah blah blah, all been there, never any different. On faz.net there is currently a (paywalled) article titled "Digitalization does not exist" – at least the abstract has some truth (I can’t read more). Especially in the field of AI, I think far too much is publicly promised and announced than is already possible in reality. Ten years ago, everything was supposed to go to India, then everything was to come back, then everything to the cloud, now back again. I really don't fear unemployment as long as full-time number crunchers play bingo to earn the next annual bonus.

Quantum computers, that would be it. That is really a new era.

I'll briefly come back to the topic:

With us, costs are currently exploding in all trades. Sometimes absurd how little house you get for your money.

However, the development is not least influenced macroeconomically. Since the financial crisis, many investment options have disappeared or risk and return no longer match. Savings accounts no longer work at all, central banks are flooding everything with money and low interest rates. This leads to increased investments in concrete gold.

This is the first connection and it alone carries the risk of bubbles forming. But, we now also have immigration and massive housing shortages in popular (mostly urban) areas. So building must happen there, the state will soon start building properly. That will be intense.

The third factor is the lack of qualified people to build.

Summarized: - Low interest phase and money surplus go into new concrete. - Housing must be created, i.e. more concrete is needed - People are missing who can build all this

==> building is becoming increasingly expensive