BackSteinGotik
2021-05-09 17:21:52
- #1
I am preparing broadly for this; such a gigantic crash will offer unique opportunities. You can see it with the pandemic and the cryptos. Getting rich has never been as easy as it is right now. And the big thing is yet to come. But you also have to be liquid then.
The big things always come, the question is only whether you recognize them in time.. ;)
I then continued calculating with hypothetical follow-up interest rates after the 15 years (various scenarios). And came to the conclusion that only from a follow-up interest rate of about 3.8% would the 30-year offer be cheaper in total costs.
It would have looked roughly like this in the graph, and personally I considered the development of interest rates unlikely. Not impossible of course, but unlikely.
3.8% unlikely? Maybe 10%, 6% okay – but 4% in 15 years is more than possible. Inflation is just getting started. And since it is a worldwide phenomenon, a single currency to subsidize southern Mediterranean countries will hardly be able to stay at 0%.
What is much more exciting – if interest rates rise significantly, prices will fall massively. Those who then financed their €600,000 houses with little repayment will get interesting problems – the loan-to-value ratio in the follow-up financing of these now deflated houses will probably not look much better after 10 years for the 1% repayers than it does today..