Future development of construction costs

Hello, I am new to the forum and hope that I am not starting my thread in the wrong topic. Otherwise, please forgive me.

We have been dealing with the topic of house construction for 2 years now and have already fixed on a specific house for quite some time. It is largely based on a show house near us and has been slightly modified. The house manufacturer is a prefabricated component manufacturer, which is also quite high-priced and advertises with a questionable energy concept.

The house is a city villa with about 10 m x 10 m floor area, which is to be fully basemented, built from hollow bricks without external thermal insulation composite system. I have sent the floor plans as well as some key data about our ideas to various providers in the region and also to (inter)national companies for quotation. It was noticeable that the differences between the individual estimates or concrete offers were minimal and there were two or three outliers with obviously full order books and about €100,000 difference upwards.

I want to finance the whole thing with a full repayment loan and take the full house price as a loan. Our equity should then cover the land, incidental costs, and furnishings. However, in the offers I am at least €20,000 above what I want to borrow according to calculations in order to come out with a manageable duration and an affordable rate and still be able to go on vacation or not have to take out a loan for car repairs.

My question: Where are the prices likely to move in construction? All savings options that could be found according to information on the internet have already been considered or are inherently fulfilled by our builder. It is nothing extravagant, 4 straight exterior walls with mainly floor-to-ceiling windows. Approximately 155 m² living space + basement.

Thanks in advance for your answers

My question: Where are the prices likely to move in construction?

I am currently polishing my crystal ball... but I don't think you really want each of us to look into our own ball?!
One thing I can tell you: it won't get cheaper

It's nothing extravagant, 4 straight exterior walls with mainly floor-to-ceiling windows. About 155 m² living space + basement.

Then leave out the basement, build 10-15 sqm bigger in total for technology, utility room and storage, and then you can sleep peacefully

There is no plot of land available, right? And you already know that you want to build a basement with bricks, even though the soil investigation is not available.

Unlike ypg, I don’t need a crystal ball. It’s clear where the prices are headed, steeply upwards over the next 3 years. If you decide today, you would probably only get your turn in summer 2019.

I honestly don't understand the waiting either... you are obviously very far along in the planning. Tweaking the house for 2 years is quite something. Have you done anything essential during this time, meaning have you had the house offered to you every 12 months? Then you know where this is going. Otherwise, ditch the basement. I also assume that saving for 2 years will become almost 0% more expensive than the price increase. In other words, do it now if the finances are right.

I think that the general approach is wrong. At least, I understood it that the plot of land does not yet exist.

A house must adapt to the plot of land. So you should first know the plot in order to then plan the optimal house regarding sun/heat/terraces/entrances etc.

The basement is also such a point. You simply cannot plan a basement, especially if you are not swimming in money, without knowing the plot. On many plots, a basement definitely makes no sense, on others all the more so.

Price development: In the short term (up to 5 years), prices will probably continue to rise steeply, everything beyond that is, in my opinion, also crystal ball gazing. But now that the Baukindergeld is coming, there will probably be another somewhat steeper increase (and it has already been very steep in recent years).

I think the general approach is wrong. At least that's how I understood it, that the plot of land does not yet exist.

A house must adapt to the plot. So you should first know the plot in order to then plan the optimal house regarding sun/heat/terraces/entrances etc.

The basement is also such a point. You simply can't plan a basement, especially if you are not swimming in money, without knowing the plot. In many plots a basement definitely doesn't make sense, while for others it makes all the more sense.

Price development: In the short term (up to 5 years) prices will probably continue to rise steeply, everything beyond that is, in my opinion, a crystal ball. But now that construction child benefits are coming, there will probably be a somewhat steeper increase again (and it was already very steep in recent years).

Exactly my words