Build now? Forward loan? Or wait?

Personal opinion:

Current ECB main refinancing rate 0.75%. The tendency for a further interest rate cut to 0.50% is currently given.

Whether a further ECB interest rate cut will also lead to further falling construction loan rates, I dare to doubt.

But it is not excluded, I suspect – at least temporarily – a decline, at least in the areas of low loan-to-value ratios. Two reasons for this: 1. The deposit rate is at -0.25% Then many will want to get rid of their money to consumers. 2. Basel III (banks) and the competing insurance companies with Solvency II will not let anything burn there. Due to Solvency II, insurance companies have to prove much less equity for loans than for trading stocks. So it should be clear where more will go.

Currently: Since the beginning of the week, interest rates have risen sharply (at least relatively). Let's see how it continues – however, a comparatively strong increase. I can only explain it by banking supervision at the moment. I think it will recover by Friday and the week will be quite stable.

If it helps, here is the development of the last 2 months on average across all maturities:

I work in the banking sector and can only say that once the dream property or dream building plot is found, you should sign the loan agreement immediately and get started. There is no reason to wait. The low interest rates have been putting pressure on the banks' margins for a long time. The pain threshold has long been reached. It is very unlikely that construction loan interest rates will fall any further, even if the base rate is lowered again.