Build now? Forward loan? Or wait?

You are completely right with your statement. Personally, I also do not expect any interest rate increase in the next 2-3 years. But everything else is hypothetical. Neither you, nor I, nor your bank director can say what interest rates will be like in 10 years. In any case, I consider his statement not to fix the interest rates at the moment to be unprofessional.
If, like him probably, you have enough in your savings account that the above-mentioned additional costs after 10 years due to possible interest rate increases do not matter to you, you can finance variably.
But 90% of homebuyers simply have to watch their money, therefore I consider a long fixed interest rate at the current level absolutely advisable. Even just for reasons of personal security!

You are right - but I also have to watch my money and precisely for that reason a "creative financing" is needed - which hardly involves more risk than the conventional model.
With the 2 possible KFW loans and a well-balanced mix of "short-term loans" and "security portion (long-term loans)" taking into account the respective repayment rates - advantages of about 0.5 - 0.8 percentage points can be achieved over a period of 20 years. Always remember - what you have gained now as an interest advantage, you can, in case interest rates unexpectedly rise again, so to speak, offset as a "profit." And since you have reduced the amount on which you have to pay interest over the years, you have a double advantage. Repay short-term loans quickly, then the "game" works out. Calculate it yourself.............................................................

First of all, things turn out differently – and secondly, than you think! Since this saying is individual-related, it means that things turn out differently for everyone than they themselves or someone else thought :cool:

Back to the original question: The questioner wants to secure the current conditions for a future project by concluding a loan agreement today and implementing the construction project sometime in the future. He wanted to know whether a forward loan is suitable for this.

Answer: No, it is not. A forward loan is the premature "extension" of an existing financing. There will hardly be a bank that grants a construction loan in advance. There are a few other problems: ->preparation interest, ->the agreed loan amount will be too large or too small, which means follow-up financing or possibly non-acceptance compensation.

[quote="carthamen, post: 40653"]Well, I see it differently – just look at the development in America – what hard indicators are there currently that interest rates are supposed to rise again? Do we want to tighten the money supply and thereby slow down the economy? Do the states want to pay even more interest on their debts? Should even more money be saved to collect low interest?
From an economic and business perspective, at least seen from a European point of view, there are no indicators that interest rates will rise in the medium term (within up to 3 years).[ /QUOTE]

Your statement applies to the short term.
At the moment, banks get money more or less for free from the ECB and co. thrown to them. I think that will remain the case for some time.
However, a bank not only has to make money now but wants to do so with a loan with a 10-year fixed interest rate also in 10 years. So if the bank assumes that interest rates will rise in the next 10 years, then the long-term interest rate will already rise now. Nothing necessarily has to have happened yet in the market; it is enough that a large bank has changed its internal risk calculation/long-term prognosis. In the worst case, all other banks will follow.
Now, most contracts have already been in place for over 15 years and partly 20 years. I can well imagine that in the next few years the risk premium for such long-term investments will have to be adjusted from time to time. In the long-term area, banks additionally compete with life insurance companies, which are now desperately trying to earn money somehow to be able to pay the minimum interest from old contracts.

Pay off short-term loans quickly, then the "game" works out. Do the math

If I start with 5% repayment on 200,000, then with an annual special repayment of €5,000 and about €1,700 monthly, I can pay off my loan within 10 years, then I don't care about the interest rate development.

But how many % of homeowners can afford that? Therefore, such tips are more for the higher earners, a normal family will probably aim for 2% repayment and try to make special repayments as often as possible. And precisely then, the expected interest rates become interesting. Of course, you can gamble, but only if you can afford it.

The comparison with America is also flawed... they regulate their markets and their currency by printing new money, and I don't need to mention how many people had to give their houses back to the bank.

Someone who wants to play it safe has to choose long fixed interest periods.

someone who wants to play it safe has to choose long fixed interest periods.

I agree with you - but as always in life, security also costs money. It's the same with financing. Nevertheless, I stick to my opinion that with a clever mix of KFW loans "short- and long-term" considering the right selection of repayment and special repayment, you can save significantly compared to a simple, long-term fixed period. Of course, the risk is inevitably higher but calculable and manageable.

If someone is currently building new, they should generally always be able to choose the Kfw program "Energieeffizient bauen." Only Kfw 70 needs to be achieved. Then there are 50 TEU at currently 1.40%. Many banks subsidize the interest. 1.00% is possible. With this interest rate, I try to repay as little as possible. So choose a term of 30 years. I already gain through the "Weg"-inflation of purchasing power. Due to the low repayment, there is room for repaying the "normal" bank loan. And if someone then earns enough or can/wants to afford it for other reasons, it can make sense here to possibly fix the interest rate only for, e.g., 5 years.