For example, if you assume a heat pump with 12 kilowatts (kW) output, the expected annual electricity consumption for a living area of around 100 square meters (sqm) would be between 6,000 and 6,500 kWh.
The problem is approached differently. You take the heating demand of the house and calculate from there. With a modern underfloor heating system and low flow temperature, you can expect to get over 3 kWh of heat from 1 kWh of electricity. With radiators at 60 degrees flow temperature, the ratio is rather about 1:2.
And for heat pumps, there are special tariffs that are well below 30 cents.
These will disappear or become correspondingly more expensive in the medium term. Normal household electricity for new customers is around ~45c/kWh. It is unrealistic to believe that you can get heat pump electricity for under 30c. Tendentially, I would expect even more.
So, let's summarize briefly:
- you cannot afford oil for 4000€/year
- you want to install a 30k heat pump in an older house with 60% radiators
- at 60° flow temperature, a heat pump will not be able to operate efficiently
- accordingly, it is absolutely not guaranteed that you will pay less for the heat pump than for oil
I would not change anything at first but rather see which measures you can use to reduce the heating demand and if there is possibly a way to get rid of the radiators.