Plan the house first and only then buy the land?

If you tweeted something like that, an outrage wave would probably break over you :P
...

I know
But I am a realist, not a feminist... also gladly sometimes provocative :P

Such magazines are IMHO not representative. You buy them also to dream ... The majority of real-existing houses look different.

Of course. Most are just glad if they can build anything at all.

But I do believe there is a slight trend toward mega-mansions among the wealthy - in the American style - everything bigger and wider.

Just 5 years ago, you had to search among prefab house providers for single-family homes larger than 200m². There was hardly anything. Now everyone is putting gigantic mansions on the market, and the catalogs are getting thicker and thicker.

The plot is immutable

First the plot, then the development plan gives the product building plot – if one of the factors is bad, the product is bad too

Now everyone is throwing gigantic huts onto the market, the catalogs are getting thicker and thicker.

I see other trends too: the brochure concludes on page 12 with the remark, besides these suggestions we also build you anything else you might want. And the segment of childless bungalows under 100 sqm is growing – at least by the number of models offered.

But I do think there is a slight trend toward mega-huts among the well-off – in the American style – everything bigger and wider.

American “style,” yes – in the sense of size over proportion, and unrestrained style mix. Square meters per capita as well. And American in the sense of no basement with a fat double garage (with a passage).

I see the real estate market in five years as a paradise full of luxury huts from failed financings.

I see the real estate market in five years as a paradise full of luxury huts made from burst financings.

The banker from my family said that five years ago as well, but so far nothing of the sort. Either we are pushing the bubble ahead of us or there is none.

Either we push the bubble ahead of us or there is none.

The bubble in the past consisted of Americans taking out mortgages on the fictitious increase in value of their house, which suddenly became due after the virtual phantom values were corrected, because the banks’ books blew up in their faces.

Since here at home, fewer mortgages are taken out, and the houses (and also the mansions) are paid for from cash flow generated by work and also contain some equity, I do not see the bursting of a bubble.

What can happen: If the euro goes belly up and a new currency appreciates massively in Germany, the export rate will shrink and many jobs will be at risk. However, many financings could burst then – but that is not a real estate bubble, at most an export bubble due to the wrong currency.

The wheel can still be turned for quite a long time by politics. Nothing has to burst. So, in the medium term. Of course, it can happen.

The banker from my family already claimed that 5 years ago, but so far nothing of the sort.

I would interpret it as the money just still being too cheap. It pops as soon as, after 10 years from the start of construction/financing, suddenly a new, higher interest rate level prevails, because then the financings that were now calculated sharply at 1% to 2% no longer work out. Then the monthly rate suddenly rises by 200€ and nothing works anymore.

Compared to the level 5 years ago, the money has rather become cheaper. I believe that the financings are quite safe. But those who have now calculated too tightly with low interest rates may possibly have a problem with follow-up financing, as long as they have not prepared in advance. I just didn’t feel like waiting 10 years and therefore threw myself into the adventure last year, whereby the increased construction prices seemingly eat up the low interest rate, if not even surpass it. I believe that construction was basically cheaper 5 years ago. But that’s just an aside.