Depends on how he calculated it, also depends on how your house is positioned and oriented, how often you are at home, where your house is actually located, etc... Generally, you can say that it does work if the calculation is correct. If an air-to-water heat pump is oversized, it cycles a lot and in the end you consume more electricity. Not having a controlled residential ventilation is just a stupid mistake, so you shouldn't overdo the ventilation at -16°C. I have a heating load of 5400 W, the pump is 5 KW and did not need this capacity even at -14°C over several days.