Taking over the parental home in x years - Paying out siblings -

If we calculate with a 4% annual price increase and 7 years, that would be nearly 400k in 7 years from a current value of 300k.

It's frightening how future price increases are now already regarded as a fact. Actually a strong indicator of a massive price bubble...

The only value that should be used now is the current value.

It's alarming how future price increases are already taken as a fact nowadays. Actually, a strong indicator of a massive price bubble...

The only value that should be considered now is the current value.

But then act and pay now as well. Assuming the current value for almost a decade is simply wrong. No matter in which direction.

Besides that: The construction price index has never really decreased since 1950.

I believe it is difficult to determine a proper value in such cases. If you take the current value, the sister misses out on a probable price increase (whatever that may be). If you take a future value in advance, the question is what value to set. If you wait X years, it may be that the deal doesn’t happen at all, and then the TE can build/buy a house somewhere in 10 years.

All I can say is which option I definitely would not choose, and that is to renovate now and then pay out the value of a renovated house. Renovation often costs 50% more spontaneously.

For something like this, stress is always guaranteed. Not that in 5 years the sister says, oh if only I had waited, the house is now worth 100k more

I wouldn't do anything right now except agree on loose letters of intent. In 5-7 years you can change jobs four times, father three children, get divorced twice, and get struck by lightning once. Under no circumstances would I make arrangements that far into the future involving the entire family and affecting everyone, in case some deviation from the plan occurs during that long period. Then you are the idiot for all eternity.