Determination of construction costs 2024 for bid submission for a plot of land

Hello everyone,

We have the opportunity to submit a purchase offer for several private plots within a municipal development area in the greater Münster area.

The plots offered by the municipality were priced at €260, but based on the score, we were not among the top 100 applicants. The municipality is allocating 59 plots, and there were more than 700 applicants.
About 100 more plots are now being allocated by private owners; we are in concrete contact with one, while the others at least have a written application from us. However, they have not responded yet.

The stated minimum price based on existing offers is, according to him, €435-450 per sqm fully developed. He received our application in October, at which time construction costs and interest rates were different.
We know what we can afford and now just have to work backwards to calculate our bid.
But: Which values should I assume for a new build in 2024 (construction costs plus incidental costs)?
I will consider a buffer anyway.
A normal single-family house for 4 people without luxury desires. So about 145 sqm. We currently have that in our rented semi-detached house.

Thanks in advance for any opinions!

I would roughly calculate with 145sqm x 3000€/sqm + 50,000€ ancillary building costs. With 500,000 it should definitely be possible, if there are no major cost drivers. It can also be cheaper, with a ready-made prefabricated house, own work, .... Exterior facilities, kitchen also still need to be added. The difference is very large depending on the region and many other factors, so it can really only be estimated very roughly.

Difficult question. I suspect that 2022 will still hold some unpleasant surprises regarding the topic of house construction. Possibly, some things will normalize again in 2023, but nothing is guaranteed. Neither in one direction nor the other. Accordingly, every estimate should be taken with great caution. I would definitely not calculate below 3000€/sqm, better with a bit more. I would definitely factor in a photovoltaic obligation if I were you, as well as the possible obligation for an Efficient House 40 building envelope. This means every comparison to today's promotional houses is outdated, even if the actual construction costs remain unchanged.

Don't forget the issue of interest rates at this point either. They are currently just as difficult to calculate as construction costs. For your financing, 2.5% is just as plausible as 3.5-4% interest.

We know what we want to afford and now basically only have to work backwards to calculate our bid.

This idea, which seems surprisingly plausible at first glance, has already been thought of by many prospective home builders before you, then reality set in. In times of particularly dynamic realities, this is not a really storm-proof strategy.

Normal single-family house for 4 people without luxury wishes. So ~145 sqm.

180 sqm would have been better, then I would have said the strategy could still work: after market turbulences, 110 could have remained. With 145 sqm, the game "what's left might still be enough" works significantly worse.

Some people also take the easy way out. Ask a question and sit back.
You've been around here for 3 years now. What has your research revealed?
You can easily skim through 8 weeks here and then find 782 posts with more or less useful information.

What does your calculation look like?
Land costs are basically fixed (known)…

We know what we want to afford and now basically just have to calculate backwards to determine our bid mathematically.

What does that mean in euros?

Thank you all for the opinions/comments. A few notes: So far I have calculated with €3,000 per sqm and €100k ancillary costs. In addition, with 3.5% interest. To take the dynamics into account, we could increase the monthly rate by about €1,000. But we don’t want to do that, so we tend to remain renters. The decision will only be made later, when we actually stand more concretely before construction. Even if we have to sell the land again at a loss, that might possibly be the economically more sensible decision. Land price: For us this is not fixed, we make an offer that suits us. Whether the seller likes it is another matter. However, this matter is currently shifting somewhat and considering the number of plots and the number of people no longer willing to build that I already know (despite access to cheap municipal land), I assume that he cannot fully enforce his price expectations. If he doesn’t find our offer attractive, then that’s that and we will remain renters in our semi-detached house. Regarding research: I have been reading a lot in this forum for a long time. Therefore, I also have a pretty realistic view of the current situation. That has helped me a lot! However, for example in the large thread on construction costs it is about everything except (90%) the development of construction costs.