Future construction cost development in the next 3-5 years

Hello,

I understand that these are purely speculations.

How do you assess the situation in the coming years? Will there be an economic crisis like in 2008/2009, and as a result, will construction prices fall and many houses (including “newer” ones) be sold?

I am curious.

Best regards,
Michael

Hello,

I am aware that these are purely speculations.

How do you assess the situation in the next 3-5 years? Will there be an economic crisis like in 2008/2009 and subsequently will construction prices fall or many houses be sold?

I am curious.

Best regards
Michael

no!

Depends. I do not rule out a crisis. Therefore, I believe there will be short-time work and/or more unemployment. And many will no longer be able to service their loans. This will lead to a price drop in the countryside. In the cities, real estate will only become more expensive.

No

until the craftsmen have to look for work again, the orders must collapse massively

even in the countryside, prices will not collapse massively. I know some who, despite short-time work, did not have less money in their wallets. Commuting costs, canteen and co disappear.

In the city, at most, the price increase will be reduced

Nope. To be honest, I myself did not feel anything negative in 2008/2009.

Current assessment of the banks:

Next 2-3 years = prices will continue to rise rapidly! (of course in metropolitan areas, and nearby. In rural areas, where nothing is happening far and wide, the development should be the same as before = stable/falling/slightly rising prices!)

After 3 years = there should slowly be a relaxation, HOWEVER prices will continue to rise, but not as strongly as in recent years!

What is the reason?

Current demand for new housing units: 380,000 per year
Current permits: 380,000 per year
Completions: approx. 350,000 per year (i.e. they would like to build more, but skilled workers are missing!) thus we are missing 30,000 units per year!!!
That is why prices for craftsmen increase by 3-5% every year because they can simply demand it (demand higher than supply!)
And that is why prices for existing properties are also rising.

From 2022 it should balance out, i.e. manpower can satisfy the demand!

Prices will only stabilize or even decline when more is built than the demand... but this is not to be expected in the next 5 years.