Finance now, defer, or go for a used property

The 50K you think is left: Keep as a buffer. It's gone faster than you can blink.

I can confirm that. We had about 65K € buffer. In the end, about 15K € will remain. Many things are not considered but should be done. For example, rainwater drainage, driveway. Paving (you don't necessarily want to bring dirt into the house all the time), kitchen is more expensive than you think, upgrades like something smart home (roller shutters via app, Philips Hue) or outdoor lighting also already cost a four-digit amount. We already calculated that a lot of the 65K € would be used up, but still counted on at least 20-25K € at the end, which can still be used for the outdoor facilities :cool:

I can confirm that. We had about 65k€ buffer. In the end, about 15k€ will remain. Many things are not considered but should be done. For example, rainwater drainage, driveway. Paving (you don't necessarily want to constantly bring dirt into the house), the kitchen is more expensive than you think, upgrades like something smart home (roller shutters via app, Philips Hue) or even outdoor lighting already cost a four-digit amount. We already calculated that a lot would be taken from the 65k€, but still expected to have at least 20-25k€ left at the end to spend on outdoor facilities :cool:

Then you didn’t calculate well. The calculation includes all planned upgrades, the kitchen, and the outdoor facilities. The buffer is not meant for predictable items; if you use it like you did, it will of course be consumed quickly. Also, of course, those without money will not waste it on smart home toys ;)

We found a good builder with a fairly secure fixed-price guarantee, no matter what happens. The contract literally states that quantity changes and price changes are at the builder’s expense and cannot be passed on.

The house has 138sqm of living/usable space and costs 350k EUR, many ancillary construction costs are already included here.

That sounds almost too good to be true. I would check that critically. Otherwise, what was written in the financing thread applies. You will need the 50k for the points mentioned there.

Basically, you won’t get anything really cheaper in the medium term. If demand collapses due to high interest rates and prices drop, you will be affected just the same. Waiting only makes sense if you have a lot of equity and interest rates are not really critical. With existing properties, it should also be noted that various renovation regulations will be tightened in the medium term. You really need a bargain for that. You shouldn’t take on an unrenovated existing property priced just below new build price.

I can confirm that. We had about €65k buffer. At the end of it, about €15k will remain. Many things are not considered but should be done. For example, rainwater drainage, driveway. Paving (you don’t necessarily want to constantly bring dirt into the house), the kitchen is more expensive than you think, upgrades like something smart home (roller shutters via app, Philips Hue) or even outdoor lighting already cost a four-figure amount. We had already calculated that a lot of the €65k would be used up, but still expected at least €20-25k in the end, which can still be used for the outdoor facilities :cool:

That is then a lack of spending discipline :D - the buffer is more for what you cannot choose.

Then you did not calculate well. The calculation includes all planned upgrades, the kitchen, and the outdoor facilities. The buffer is not meant for expected items; if you use it like you did, it will of course be used up quickly. Besides, of course, whoever has no money will not squander it on smart home gadgets ;)

I would not speak of a miscalculation with a 5-10k € difference on a 500,000 € project. There are simply things that we are now tackling that we did not have in the calculation because they were planned for later, like the driveway, which alone costs 6,000 €. By miscalculation I rather understand having to refinance.

That is then lack of spending discipline :D - the buffer is rather for what you cannot choose.

That is true. And for the things we could not choose, we only had rainwater drainage with an amount of 3,000 €. Other things were removed or the upgrade was scaled down because in the first offers we simply included everything.

"The average construction loan interest rates will rise. Our Sparkasse Mittelthüringen assumes that by the end of 2022 we will be around 4-5% and next year probably around 6%. After 4-5 years, the interest rate should normalize to about 3,xx%. I can imagine that."

I disagree with that.... I am rather of the opinion that we are currently at the peak (3-4% interest rates), and at the end of the year it will most likely go down.

Why?
On the one hand, the ECB will raise interest rates starting in July (which could cause interest rates to rise!) BUT the market has already priced this in, if not even overdone it (upwards!)
Therefore, the ECB should raise interest rates slowly, in small steps, without causing construction loan interest rates to rise.

But here comes the thing:
Although they want to counteract inflation, this inflation has been caused by "increased energy prices/disruption of supply chains." And it doesn't matter whether the ECB is at 0.00% or 5.00%, they won't be able to do much about that.
BUT if the ECB raises too much and too quickly, they will stifle the economy (which will already stagnate instead of grow), and it will also be the ECB's task to prevent this.

A possible scenario is that the FED wants to strengthen the economy in the USA, and starting in autumn we will begin to lower interest rates (which Japan did; they realized that raising interest rates doesn’t make sense, so they stick to 0% policy).
When the Americans lower interest rates, the ECB will at the latest stop raising them.

And if the ECB were to raise interest rates to 3%, then we would have entirely different problems in the EU (with Italy, Portugal, Spain, etc.)

Therefore, my humble opinion: it's rather unlikely that we will see 5-6% interest rates...

: proper citation would be very helpful when reading.