Build now? Forward loan? Or wait?

  • Erstellt am 2012-12-12 10:08:37

Omega

2012-12-12 10:08:37
  • #1
I have already read several times on the internet and learned from conversations that a construction loan is currently very cheap, meaning that you only have to pay very low interest on the loan.

That this is the case is beyond question according to my experience, assessment, and all the sources. However, where I am uncertain is whether the interest rates will remain in this range in the coming months / years (?). Clearly, no one can predict it, but what do you think?

The point is, we actually wanted to build in 1-2 years but are considering whether we should start building now because of the cheap financing. What do you think about the possibility of a forward loan? Is it worthwhile? Or do you think the interest rates will stay this low or drop further and we should build when we originally planned?

Thanks in advance for your assessment!
 

Nilo

2012-12-12 10:21:56
  • #2
Personal opinion:

Current ECB key interest rate 0.75%. There is currently a tendency for a further rate cut to 0.50%.

Whether a further rate cut by the ECB will also lead to further falling construction interest rates, I dare to doubt. Interest rates are already historically low and risk premiums must also be taken into account.

Nothing will certainly run away from you within 1 year, and personally, I also cannot imagine that within 2 years.

But that's just my personal opinion, unfortunately none of us has a crystal ball ..
 

carthamen

2012-12-12 14:18:01
  • #3
What a friend who is a former bank director told me recently - no long-term fixed interest rates at all - interest rates will not rise in the near future. All the states are heavily indebted and would have to pay even more for their loans if interest rates were increased. Inflation is more likely to rise - interest rates will remain low in the long term - more likely to fall.
I bought a condominium a year ago - even back then I thought interest rates were historically low = misjudgment. I fixed the loan for 10 years. That was a big mistake. If I had chosen a "short-term" loan, it would have been significantly cheaper. I would have saved 1.3 percentage points - a lot of money...........................
 

Nilo

2012-12-12 14:34:06
  • #4
I am a banker myself and cannot share this opinion. What I do agree with is the view that interest rates will not rise quickly, among other reasons due to the high national debt in Europe. As mentioned, the ECB is currently considering lowering the key interest rates to 0.50%.

What I cannot agree with is the attitude towards fixed interest rates. As a borrower, I can currently buy XX years of security at a very good interest rate. I can still keep a (manageable) part flexible (e.g., 10 years KfW).
Even if interest rates fall by another 0.50%, I can live very well with my current interest rate. If interest rates are higher in 10 years than they are today (and no one can assess that today, but it is very likely), I could look very foolish with my due fixed interest rate. A time when many mortgage loans will default. For example, if EUR 200,000 become available and we have an interest rate increase of 3%, we are talking about an additional burden of EUR 500 monthly! That first has to be managed. And I do not want to bear this risk...
 

Der Da

2012-12-12 15:49:30
  • #5

These are the same people who then advise you to buy junk bonds, or gamble away your money, or sell you a home savings contract at 80 years old.

Even the bank director cannot foresee what will happen in 2 years, or what will happen in 10 years. Anyone who takes out a loan under 20 years today is a risk-loving person. If the interest rate falls, anyone can cancel the bank after 10 years. Provided another bank is found to take over the loan.
But honestly, I don't believe that one will ever get a large sum far below 3%.
 

carthamen

2012-12-13 00:51:36
  • #6



Well, I see that differently – just look at the development in America – what solid indicators are there currently that interest rates will rise again? Do we want to tighten the money supply and thus slow down the economy? Do states want to pay even more interest on their debts? Should more money be saved to earn low interest?
So, economically and from a business perspective, at least from a European point of view, there are no indicators that interest rates will rise in the medium term (within up to 3 years).
 

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