Effects of the war on construction costs and interest rates?

Hello everyone,

I don't know if the political developments are unsettling you as much as they are for me right now. What do you think how the war will affect the financial world and construction costs? What could that mean for interest rates?
We are currently selling our property with the plan to build again. The motto now is rather sooner than later.
How do you assess this?

I think that is still mostly speculation. Sure, energy prices are rising, gas could become scarce, the stock market is crashing. How long will it last? What happens next? How will NATO react? China? How long will there be economic sanctions? What is Putin satisfied with?

Predictions are difficult; currently, it is hardly foreseeable how far the whole thing will escalate. Is the goal to conquer the entire Ukraine or only the part claimed by the separatists? What would happen after a conquest? Will the West simply watch with homeopathic sanctions, or will there be sanctions that really hurt? I do not believe in military intervention by the West; many serious sanctions would also hurt the West a lot or are simply impractical. For example, we cannot simply do without Russian gas.

What is clear, however, is the following: Russia is one of the major exporters of oil, gas, and other raw materials. If there are major sanctions or disruptions here, it will affect the entire supply chain. Accordingly, I would assume that prices will tend to continue rising. For interest rates, the opposite should apply, at least in the short term. Construction interest rates are oriented towards capital market interest rates, and if many investors switch from stocks to bonds, interest rates will tend to fall somewhat. However, it is absolutely unclear how strong the effects on construction interest rates actually are.

Basically, nothing changes for you in the situation. Prices were already rising sharply before, so I would not take too much time with the new construction contract.

Today, buying prices are coming on the stock market. Energy prices will rise temporarily. Even in times of war, Russia or the USSR has supplied gas. They have to sell something too. The Americans also like to sell us their more expensive liquefied gas. Interest rates are rising anyway. Just stick to your plan.

That will depend on the extent to which the supply of oil and gas from Russia continues - or not. As I see it, Putin is prepared for anything, even if it means immense damage to his own country and population. In my opinion, nothing can be ruled out - not even a complete halt to deliveries from Russia. Of course, that would drive prices up here again as well.

What about Russia as a transshipment point for deliveries from the East / Far East? Are physical supply bottlenecks to be feared if Russia ceases to be a trade route?

Simply completely insane what is happening at the moment. If the West follows through with the sanctions, Putin will ruin his own country in the long run.

See it like Rick. The Russians need the gas deliveries just as much, their currency is already under enough pressure... In general, the stock markets initially fall due to the rise in oil prices and the expected uncertainty. Flight from risk (=stocks) usually leads to safe investment forms, e.g. bonds = interest rates tend to go down. Interest rate hikes in times of crisis are also rather atypical, especially when an active war needs to be financed.

Until everyone realizes that a war in Ukraine has not really much to do with world trade... the biggest medium-term risk in my opinion is sanctions. But even there I would not expect interest rates to rise (instead stock prices come under pressure).